Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


  • Jan

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Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River ( Jan 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1983) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (2012) (GL)
Jan21.37710.48213.2841.37721.48131.981
Jan-Feb38.27617.49720.9291.96048.35964.627
Jan-Mar56.21932.00132.0247.08488.117314.787

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1051.38684.963
2041.86166.684
3035.88256.173
4031.17647.393
5027.02640.539
6023.68033.968
7020.20328.467
8016.70022.934
9012.40516.508

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
183.979141.544
273.462122.200
367.852114.902
463.729109.037
560.838104.774
658.40698.961
756.61594.955
854.65091.270
952.91887.649
1051.38684.963
1150.38982.756
1249.22480.342
1348.10678.525
1447.09876.716
1545.87074.741
1644.85273.183
1744.12571.374
1843.31569.542
1942.74967.940
2041.86166.684
2141.22065.475
2240.55164.136
2339.88363.202
2439.27161.847
2538.75261.000
2638.09160.274
2737.49059.170
2836.91758.296
2936.43057.283
3035.88256.173
3135.38355.160
3234.94254.135
3334.50453.327
3434.02452.533
3533.54751.446
3633.03250.580
3732.50049.717
3832.03348.914
3931.64148.256
4031.17647.393
4130.67346.559
4230.20845.943
4329.73045.424
4429.39444.712
4528.96044.073
4628.57943.359
4728.12342.711
4827.73741.867
4927.31541.229
5027.02640.539
5126.59839.914
5226.28239.289
5325.93738.557
5425.66037.859
5525.35137.150
5624.94736.290
5724.65235.783
5824.30335.270
5924.04134.707
6023.68033.968
6123.35133.230
6223.06232.691
6322.77832.188
6422.37831.569
6521.96931.087
6621.65330.595
6721.20930.134
6820.91629.532
6920.56928.913
7020.20328.467
7119.82427.856
7219.45127.365
7319.15626.788
7418.81126.271
7518.37325.696
7618.05225.181
7717.74924.618
7817.37624.096
7917.03323.594
8016.70022.934
8116.33622.310
8215.93921.713
8315.51821.030
8415.12820.455
8514.78119.953
8614.31619.273
8713.80618.565
8813.32817.989
8912.93917.292
9012.40516.508
9111.80815.765
9211.30314.875
9310.68913.908
9410.16612.700
959.48511.811
968.68110.759
977.5559.156
986.4067.695
994.0955.866


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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