Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River



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Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River ( Apr 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1967) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Apr17.13613.13613.7137.93318.54142.391
Apr-May50.43635.19637.05913.87241.311262.942
Apr-Jun100.22190.02996.86822.88578.570333.783

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10153.578168.089
20124.454130.270
30106.275110.135
4093.74294.037
5082.63081.848
6072.32970.416
7063.37861.003
8053.39151.646
9041.53940.877

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1258.110319.323
2221.505260.399
3205.383240.340
4190.670224.980
5182.003214.215
6175.898200.042
7168.599190.597
8162.223182.128
9157.925173.999
10153.578168.089
11149.546163.307
12145.719158.146
13143.026154.312
14140.062150.535
15137.284146.455
16133.640143.269
17130.711139.604
18128.423135.932
19126.372132.748
20124.454130.270
21122.219127.901
22120.423125.292
23118.390123.485
24116.538120.876
25114.507119.255
26112.560117.869
27111.185115.773
28109.725114.121
29108.095112.215
30106.275110.135
31104.960108.248
32104.035106.345
33102.416104.853
34100.767103.390
3599.480101.396
3698.42199.813
3797.03598.242
3895.97396.786
3994.87095.595
4093.74294.037
4192.55892.538
4291.43491.433
4390.46790.505
4489.33389.234
4588.29188.096
4687.06786.827
4785.76385.679
4884.63584.187
4983.82983.061
5082.63081.848
5181.58880.751
5280.78379.655
5379.69478.377
5478.55577.157
5577.52175.923
5676.52474.431
5775.33573.551
5874.16872.664
5973.35271.691
6072.32970.416
6171.37269.146
6270.40268.220
6369.63367.356
6468.75666.296
6568.09765.472
6667.33464.629
6766.47763.842
6865.60062.817
6964.61161.763
7063.37861.003
7162.40959.965
7261.50659.132
7360.52858.154
7459.62657.278
7558.54756.306
7657.37555.436
7756.39554.485
7855.44053.604
7954.26652.759
8053.39151.646
8152.53350.597
8251.37249.593
8350.38348.448
8449.23547.483
8548.18046.641
8646.75745.501
8745.60744.316
8844.17143.353
8942.86942.188
9041.53940.877
9140.32339.637
9238.96938.152
9337.45536.538
9435.35234.524
9533.58233.042
9631.51431.287
9728.77528.614
9826.05726.175
9921.70823.119


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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