Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


Return to catchment list
Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River



Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River ( Jun 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (1967) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1981) (GL)
Jun49.78554.83356.8499.01337.25988.512
Jun-Jul131.471137.211163.00927.80699.839329.437
Jun-Aug231.423292.110238.53649.548178.634553.808

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10341.640387.143
20297.312318.403
30266.762275.769
40238.759238.203
50214.496207.648
60191.154177.440
70167.142151.637
80141.578125.433
90105.05795.123

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1464.224571.638
2431.635511.943
3411.866488.682
4393.992469.625
5381.481455.550
6370.104436.020
7362.631422.315
8355.061409.516
9347.898396.745
10341.640387.143
11336.948379.166
12332.463370.344
13327.657363.637
14322.625356.902
15317.919349.479
16312.740343.570
17309.186336.650
18305.508329.579
19300.713323.336
20297.312318.403
21293.058313.624
22289.431308.292
23286.366304.554
24283.027299.091
25280.559295.658
26277.404292.697
27274.781288.179
28271.686284.582
29269.419280.392
30266.762275.769
31264.555271.529
32261.485267.211
33259.130263.793
34256.032260.417
35253.108255.772
36249.642252.050
37247.124248.325
38244.063244.844
39241.105241.979
40238.759238.203
41236.142234.544
42233.606231.826
43230.948229.533
44228.061226.378
45225.884223.534
46223.887220.344
47221.811217.444
48219.587213.648
49217.489210.768
50214.496207.648
51211.992204.809
52209.833201.962
53207.370198.624
54205.320195.423
55203.004192.166
56200.530188.207
57198.382185.862
58195.825183.487
59193.497180.876
60191.154177.440
61188.306174.002
62186.094171.486
63183.753169.132
64181.887166.235
65179.348163.974
66177.280161.659
67174.584159.493
68172.634156.661
69170.089153.743
70167.142151.637
71164.917148.749
72162.458146.429
73159.966143.698
74157.274141.251
75154.669138.528
76151.691136.088
77149.003133.418
78146.475130.943
79144.328128.564
80141.578125.433
81138.712122.475
82134.807119.646
83131.927116.416
84129.045113.696
85125.859111.325
86122.794108.113
87118.258104.776
88113.635102.069
89109.62798.797
90105.05795.123
91101.88091.659
9295.37487.520
9387.87183.045
9482.59377.493
9577.84273.434
9671.41368.666
9761.59961.490
9848.35055.050
9930.12047.148


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence