Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River



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Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River ( Jan 2010 )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2009) (GL)Observed (2010) (GL)Minimum (1983) (GL)10 yr average (2000+) (GL)Maximum (1994) (GL)
Jan20.59713.67019.2121.37715.52662.405
Jan-Feb34.94820.93229.1931.96030.005101.698
Jan-Mar46.53925.33151.0597.08439.289135.135

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1054.54784.963
2044.48766.684
3038.22356.173
4033.21747.393
5028.83440.539
6025.39333.968
7021.72528.467
8018.00922.934
9013.40716.508

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
188.232141.544
277.294122.200
371.318114.902
467.215109.037
564.285104.774
661.80398.961
759.90794.955
857.80091.270
955.90987.649
1054.54784.963
1153.26982.756
1252.01580.342
1350.97478.525
1449.88176.716
1548.72574.741
1647.63073.183
1746.77771.374
1846.03469.542
1945.27667.940
2044.48766.684
2143.78265.475
2243.08764.136
2342.38763.202
2441.75561.847
2541.19961.000
2640.55360.274
2739.90559.170
2839.25458.296
2938.68257.283
3038.22356.173
3137.65655.160
3237.19854.135
3336.72953.327
3436.27352.533
3535.79051.446
3635.19850.580
3734.64849.717
3834.20348.914
3933.72848.256
4033.21747.393
4132.66046.559
4232.17645.943
4331.73045.424
4431.34244.712
4530.92444.073
4630.50943.359
4730.07942.711
4829.58641.867
4929.21641.229
5028.83440.539
5128.43839.914
5228.09039.289
5327.86438.557
5427.47237.859
5527.14737.150
5626.75936.290
5726.47035.783
5826.06935.270
5925.71534.707
6025.39333.968
6124.96133.230
6224.71232.691
6324.37532.188
6424.04131.569
6523.66131.087
6623.24730.595
6722.83730.134
6822.46129.532
6922.01628.913
7021.72528.467
7121.32727.856
7220.97727.365
7320.58126.788
7420.23326.271
7519.80025.696
7619.48925.181
7719.13824.618
7818.77424.096
7918.39323.594
8018.00922.934
8117.63622.310
8217.22621.713
8316.81321.030
8416.44720.455
8516.02019.953
8615.44519.273
8714.95418.565
8814.50017.989
8914.00817.292
9013.40716.508
9112.82615.765
9212.32714.875
9311.65413.908
9411.00712.700
9510.43411.811
969.58910.759
978.4469.156
987.1507.695
994.9285.866


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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