Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River


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Product list for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River



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Historical and exceedance probability for Total flow of Kiewa River to Murray River ( Jan 2011 )

Historical Observations
Average (1966+) (GL)Last year (2010) (GL)Observed (2011) (GL)Minimum (1983) (GL)10 yr average (2001+) (GL)Maximum (1994) (GL)
Jan20.56619.21258.1761.37714.87962.405
Jan-Feb34.81829.193185.6541.96028.250101.698
Jan-Mar46.64251.059244.0577.08438.557135.135

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10126.26584.963
20106.76466.684
3093.99056.173
4084.03447.393
5076.13040.539
6067.83433.968
7060.24828.467
8052.02822.934
9041.45316.508

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1195.933141.544
2170.866122.200
3157.026114.902
4150.560109.037
5143.000104.774
6138.30398.961
7135.27694.955
8131.83491.270
9129.24687.649
10126.26584.963
11123.17982.756
12121.24980.342
13119.55878.525
14117.53176.716
15115.48174.741
16113.12873.183
17110.90071.374
18109.86669.542
19108.20867.940
20106.76466.684
21104.77465.475
22103.62564.136
23102.36063.202
24101.33061.847
2599.80761.000
2698.56560.274
2797.36359.170
2896.05358.296
2994.97257.283
3093.99056.173
3192.80255.160
3291.49754.135
3390.52853.327
3489.69652.533
3588.70751.446
3687.87250.580
3786.90749.717
3885.93648.914
3985.14048.256
4084.03447.393
4183.27046.559
4282.60745.943
4381.73645.424
4480.93744.712
4580.20644.073
4679.37143.359
4778.58042.711
4877.69841.867
4976.88941.229
5076.13040.539
5175.01239.914
5274.24939.289
5373.36638.557
5472.52637.859
5571.69937.150
5671.00736.290
5770.04835.783
5869.35035.270
5968.55134.707
6067.83433.968
6167.22933.230
6266.25332.691
6365.58832.188
6464.74431.569
6563.91031.087
6663.29430.595
6762.49330.134
6861.75629.532
6960.99628.913
7060.24828.467
7159.38827.856
7258.59327.365
7358.00726.788
7457.32526.271
7556.52625.696
7655.58625.181
7754.56324.618
7853.80324.096
7952.92623.594
8052.02822.934
8150.97922.310
8250.21421.713
8349.37621.030
8448.47820.455
8547.63419.953
8646.52619.273
8745.34718.565
8844.03517.989
8942.99117.292
9041.45316.508
9140.39315.765
9238.95814.875
9337.53513.908
9436.19112.700
9534.01011.811
9632.13110.759
9729.5179.156
9827.4007.695
9922.7215.866


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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