Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10152.355203.392
20115.951159.164
3092.247130.156
4073.508103.182
5059.43680.207
6047.71157.145
7037.34938.546
8027.72522.762
9017.77310.191

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1255.200314.902
2223.797279.447
3208.057265.516
4193.605254.039
5183.665245.519
6176.642233.625
7169.315225.222
8163.208217.325
9157.924209.394
10152.355203.392
11147.408198.379
12143.355192.804
13139.662188.542
14135.094184.240
15131.164179.472
16128.036175.655
17125.056171.160
18122.156166.537
19119.248162.429
20115.951159.164
21113.124155.985
22110.654152.417
23107.913149.904
24105.401146.210
25102.304143.877
26100.377141.857
2798.054138.759
2896.413136.280
2994.314133.378
3092.247130.156
3190.235127.183
3287.884124.138
3385.994121.714
3484.071119.308
3582.164115.979
3680.694113.295
3778.959110.594
3877.014108.057
3975.256105.959
4073.508103.182
4172.043100.475
4270.98998.457
4369.03296.748
4467.40794.388
4565.82792.253
4664.49089.850
4763.48187.657
4862.01584.778
4960.80882.587
5059.43680.207
5157.96378.037
5256.89075.858
5355.53673.300
5454.33470.847
5553.42068.352
5652.44865.322
5751.12963.532
5849.93561.723
5948.94159.741
6047.71157.145
6146.80054.566
6245.51752.692
6344.41050.951
6443.18748.827
6542.23947.187
6641.18845.523
6740.29243.982
6839.32941.993
6938.31739.978
7037.34938.546
7136.46536.617
7235.61635.096
7334.50033.343
7433.59231.806
7532.77930.137
7631.89828.680
7730.43427.127
7829.44225.729
7928.50824.423
8027.72522.762
8126.74321.255
8225.42619.870
8324.53918.358
8423.55917.141
8522.72716.122
8621.70714.805
8720.86413.511
8819.85112.518
8918.80211.383
9017.77310.191
9116.4629.146
9215.2027.995
9314.1386.863
9412.9835.615
9511.3724.806
9610.2403.960
978.9052.883
987.0492.101
995.2341.351


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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