Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10118.818237.610
2076.860132.448
3054.66985.518
4040.95155.572
5030.53237.773
6022.69724.768
7016.49616.535
8011.23110.337
906.0995.341

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1288.322600.507
2234.940479.295
3207.428432.359
4181.359394.215
5166.655366.317
6151.354328.173
7141.601301.939
8133.763277.959
9126.047254.651
10118.818237.610
11112.737223.810
12107.312208.969
13102.064198.006
1497.983187.291
1594.060175.847
1689.746167.022
1785.923157.021
1882.568147.184
1979.731138.828
2076.860132.448
2174.216126.457
2271.858119.990
2369.639115.595
2467.101109.377
2565.209105.594
2663.169102.407
2761.37297.679
2858.85794.031
2956.79189.909
3054.66985.518
3153.02781.634
3251.19777.817
3349.51574.893
3448.14472.088
3546.73368.359
3645.40365.479
3744.42062.691
3843.23360.168
3942.00258.151
4040.95155.572
4139.68853.158
4238.51951.417
4337.36349.983
4436.26848.059
4535.29646.375
4634.32744.539
4733.29342.918
4832.19540.866
4931.35739.358
5030.53237.773
5129.70036.373
5228.82135.008
5328.04933.457
5427.17132.019
5526.43730.603
5625.56228.945
5724.82627.994
5824.06827.055
5923.37526.050
6022.69724.768
6121.94623.532
6221.08722.656
6320.47221.858
6419.98620.903
6519.37120.179
6618.74319.456
6718.16718.796
6817.56517.958
6916.95017.121
7016.49616.535
7115.79715.753
7215.21515.144
7314.75214.448
7414.24813.843
7513.76713.190
7613.21512.623
7712.63512.021
7812.15211.481
7911.66410.977
8011.23110.337
8110.7639.754
8210.2809.218
839.6418.630
849.0808.153
858.5787.752
868.0937.229
877.6006.709
887.0426.306
896.5335.839
906.0995.341
915.4994.896
924.9874.395
934.5243.890
944.0023.315
953.3402.928
962.8222.510
972.1771.950
981.4901.516
990.5621.068


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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