Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10193.217294.909
20151.654220.406
30121.374172.496
4097.858129.746
5079.11595.961
6062.73165.626
7047.42643.925
8033.99326.820
9020.63713.136

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1317.224484.195
2277.230423.964
3259.923400.303
4246.910380.813
5236.702366.347
6225.748346.160
7217.408331.904
8208.501318.514
9199.871305.072
10193.217294.909
11187.970286.425
12184.971276.997
13180.227269.797
14176.605262.536
15172.244254.497
16168.355248.070
17164.099240.511
18159.321232.750
19155.294225.867
20151.654220.406
21148.449215.100
22145.020209.158
23142.278204.980
24139.098198.855
25135.640194.997
26132.826191.662
27129.758186.562
28126.139182.494
29123.939177.745
30121.374172.496
31118.799167.673
32116.712162.756
33114.295158.861
34111.440155.012
35108.674149.717
36106.350145.474
37103.816141.233
38101.703137.275
3999.870134.022
4097.858129.746
4195.851125.614
4294.233122.556
4392.059119.983
4490.273116.456
4588.029113.292
4686.232109.762
4784.359106.571
4882.817102.428
4980.87599.310
5079.11595.961
5177.28492.942
5275.94089.943
5374.35286.465
5472.53683.175
5570.58079.875
5668.90775.930
5767.27673.631
5865.75071.334
5964.22668.843
6062.73165.626
6161.06162.478
6259.31060.222
6357.75658.147
6455.95655.644
6554.70353.732
6653.19851.809
6751.86250.044
6850.36947.787
6948.85745.521
7047.42643.925
7146.31941.790
7244.88240.119
7343.80738.204
7442.43936.534
7541.04334.730
7639.39233.159
7737.93731.492
7836.72429.994
7935.49528.596
8033.99326.820
8132.70025.206
8231.35623.723
8329.94322.097
8428.87420.785
8527.58819.682
8626.28318.249
8724.91116.833
8823.20715.737
8921.71914.474
9020.63713.136
9119.21411.949
9217.81810.622
9315.9289.297
9414.3167.805
9512.7046.815
9610.8405.758
979.1444.369
987.4823.317
995.0142.259


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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