Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1047.335115.600
2030.58378.506
3021.86757.454
4016.50941.147
5012.47729.861
609.41620.581
706.72814.096
804.4548.768
902.1264.028

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1105.983218.584
288.383185.333
378.580172.333
470.620161.668
563.187153.787
659.375142.852
756.477135.186
852.943128.039
949.769120.928
1047.335115.600
1144.986111.190
1243.077106.334
1341.262102.660
1439.67798.989
1538.05394.967
1636.12091.787
1734.61288.090
1832.96484.345
1931.70181.070
2030.58378.506
2129.65876.044
2228.50173.322
2327.54271.432
2426.62968.698
2525.71266.998
2624.97465.544
2724.02763.345
2823.31161.615
2922.52159.623
3021.86757.454
3121.23555.493
3220.55753.526
3319.88051.990
3419.36650.493
3518.78648.464
3618.40946.866
3717.81245.293
3817.29343.845
3916.87842.670
4016.50941.147
4116.09839.697
4215.51238.637
4315.15137.754
4414.62836.556
4514.29035.493
4613.93934.320
4713.59333.272
4813.23331.927
4912.88830.926
5012.47729.861
5112.14028.909
5211.77827.971
5311.46126.892
5411.10425.880
5510.83924.871
5610.49523.674
5710.20822.980
589.96322.289
599.70521.542
609.41620.581
619.13819.642
628.87218.970
638.60518.352
648.33217.606
658.06817.036
667.74916.463
677.53115.935
687.23015.259
696.98014.577
706.72814.096
716.49113.449
726.29212.940
736.03412.353
745.82511.839
755.59011.280
765.38510.789
775.18210.265
784.8939.789
794.6689.342
804.4548.768
814.2138.241
824.0067.750
833.8157.206
843.5466.761
853.2646.382
863.0325.884
872.7865.382
882.5854.989
892.3624.527
902.1264.028
911.8903.576
921.6843.059
931.4232.527
941.1351.906
950.9071.480
960.5921.008
970.2850.356
980.0160.000
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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