Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie



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Exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie ( May 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10183.926237.610
20126.435132.448
3093.71585.518
4070.64455.572
5053.94237.773
6040.67124.768
7029.97116.535
8020.87410.337
9011.5375.341

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1375.030600.507
2318.245479.295
3288.318432.359
4257.254394.215
5241.099366.317
6224.538328.173
7212.299301.939
8202.576277.959
9192.825254.651
10183.926237.610
11175.761223.810
12168.996208.969
13161.553198.006
14155.867187.291
15149.882175.847
16144.722167.022
17140.477157.021
18135.083147.184
19130.489138.828
20126.435132.448
21123.172126.457
22119.175119.990
23116.281115.595
24111.997109.377
25109.080105.594
26106.351102.407
27102.90297.679
2899.55994.031
2997.04089.909
3093.71585.518
3190.44581.634
3287.76477.817
3384.95374.893
3483.07272.088
3580.82768.359
3678.46565.479
3776.42762.691
3874.23460.168
3972.36758.151
4070.64455.572
4169.01353.158
4267.05651.417
4365.60849.983
4463.96448.059
4562.23046.375
4660.59344.539
4758.68142.918
4857.05440.866
4955.46039.358
5053.94237.773
5152.64236.373
5251.38635.008
5349.80333.457
5448.16432.019
5546.70630.603
5645.47628.945
5744.12427.994
5842.66627.055
5941.72026.050
6040.67124.768
6139.49323.532
6238.09422.656
6337.15221.858
6436.04520.903
6534.84620.179
6633.92219.456
6733.01518.796
6831.82117.958
6930.87117.121
7029.97116.535
7128.90815.753
7227.77215.144
7326.87814.448
7425.91213.843
7525.11313.190
7624.18812.623
7723.18312.021
7822.49511.481
7921.68410.977
8020.87410.337
8120.0119.754
8219.1519.218
8318.2648.630
8417.1118.153
8516.2657.752
8615.4427.229
8714.3576.709
8813.3936.306
8912.6095.839
9011.5375.341
9110.5814.896
929.7914.395
939.1383.890
948.2183.315
957.0482.928
966.1082.510
974.9731.950
983.6421.516
992.2591.068


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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