Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie( Aug 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile35.78134.732
Median70.38995.961
Mean87.511128.784
75% Quartile123.441194.995
Interquartile Range87.660160.263

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1301.353484.195
2264.355423.964
3245.262400.303
4232.908380.813
5222.322366.347
6211.175346.160
7203.092331.904
8195.272318.514
9187.580305.072
10180.756294.909
11174.572286.425
12170.410276.997
13167.452269.797
14163.680262.536
15159.291254.497
16155.544248.070
17151.778240.511
18147.256232.750
19142.831225.867
20138.949220.406
21135.655215.100
22132.396209.158
23129.932204.980
24126.247198.855
25123.522194.997
26120.598191.662
27117.994186.562
28115.002182.494
29112.204177.745
30109.714172.496
31107.677167.673
32105.217162.756
33103.047158.861
34100.870155.012
3598.043149.717
3695.866145.474
3793.909141.233
3891.871137.275
3989.911134.022
4088.068129.746
4185.900125.614
4284.198122.556
4382.961119.983
4480.701116.456
4578.630113.292
4677.075109.762
4775.197106.571
4873.805102.428
4972.15199.310
5070.38995.961
5169.06592.942
5267.47489.943
5365.56486.465
5464.14683.175
5562.43479.875
5660.94275.930
5759.36673.631
5858.14471.334
5956.71768.843
6054.94365.626
6153.72662.478
6252.30260.222
6350.60858.147
6449.18755.644
6547.93353.732
6646.82851.809
6745.61950.044
6843.94447.787
6943.08445.521
7041.81543.925
7140.51341.790
7239.27940.119
7338.06338.204
7437.09736.534
7535.77934.730
7634.52033.159
7733.13331.492
7832.08429.994
7930.80828.596
8029.48226.820
8128.15925.206
8227.25623.723
8326.00722.097
8424.84820.785
8523.63019.682
8622.61918.249
8721.37116.833
8819.90215.737
8918.73314.474
9017.63613.136
9116.50711.949
9215.08010.622
9313.7689.297
9412.2817.805
9510.8966.815
969.1225.758
977.6964.369
986.0363.317
994.0462.259


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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