Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie( Oct 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile10.86815.813
Median22.21355.375
Mean33.00668.635
75% Quartile44.113107.041
Interquartile Range33.24591.228

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1157.842244.323
2128.796215.880
3116.875204.704
4105.297195.497
597.571188.661
691.043179.118
786.349172.376
881.615166.040
978.498159.675
1075.279154.859
1171.760150.835
1268.202146.360
1366.024142.939
1463.730139.485
1561.478135.657
1659.175132.591
1757.182128.981
1855.272125.267
1953.445121.965
2051.581119.340
2150.078116.784
2248.736113.915
2346.913111.893
2445.541108.920
2544.116107.042
2642.949105.415
2741.480102.919
2840.408100.922
2939.40798.581
3038.18195.982
3137.02493.582
3236.19891.122
3335.18389.163
3434.12487.217
3533.15384.523
3632.37882.348
3731.64080.159
3830.77078.100
3929.98476.396
4029.26674.138
4128.45771.937
4227.71170.293
4326.97368.900
4426.10766.976
4525.41565.233
4624.78663.269
4724.03561.477
4823.39659.120
4922.68257.326
5022.21355.375
5121.73953.597
5221.15651.809
5320.61949.711
5420.15847.699
5519.61745.654
5619.14243.174
5718.68341.711
5818.22940.235
5917.74338.620
6017.21336.514
6116.75034.430
6216.24532.924
6315.85231.532
6415.45129.844
6514.92328.549
6614.55427.245
6714.10526.046
6813.63724.513
6913.20922.977
7012.84121.898
7112.47720.462
7212.11919.346
7311.68918.077
7411.33016.981
7510.86415.811
7610.39314.806
7710.10113.755
789.72712.825
799.39011.972
808.94510.909
818.6489.968
828.2199.123
837.7538.223
847.3727.517
856.9706.938
866.5856.208
876.2685.511
885.9224.991
895.4704.411
905.0143.823
914.7023.324
924.2682.794
933.8272.295
943.4321.772
953.0901.451
962.5811.131
972.0980.753
981.5920.501
990.7900.284


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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