Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile10.62615.813
Median21.60955.375
Mean32.33068.635
75% Quartile43.203107.041
Interquartile Range32.57791.228

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1155.562244.323
2126.893215.880
3114.955204.704
4104.014195.497
596.037188.661
689.092179.118
784.819172.376
880.717166.040
976.988159.675
1073.727154.859
1170.099150.835
1266.928146.360
1364.593142.939
1462.499139.485
1560.410135.657
1658.150132.591
1755.724128.981
1853.714125.267
1952.364121.965
2050.458119.340
2148.865116.784
2247.465113.915
2345.887111.893
2444.620108.920
2543.204107.042
2641.781105.415
2740.708102.919
2839.592100.922
2938.43198.581
3037.43795.982
3136.39893.582
3235.28991.122
3334.33289.163
3433.48287.217
3532.29784.523
3631.49482.348
3730.75480.159
3830.03378.100
3929.24876.396
4028.58174.138
4127.81771.937
4226.93470.293
4326.20668.900
4425.45066.976
4524.80665.233
4624.19563.269
4723.49661.477
4822.78259.120
4922.17557.326
5021.60955.375
5121.17253.597
5220.65051.809
5320.14949.711
5419.65247.699
5519.20845.654
5618.74743.174
5718.23841.711
5817.76840.235
5917.23938.620
6016.80236.514
6116.24134.430
6215.77832.924
6315.44231.532
6415.11329.844
6514.58728.549
6614.19927.245
6713.74126.046
6813.25924.513
6912.87822.977
7012.48821.898
7112.11720.462
7211.80319.346
7311.36418.077
7410.97216.981
7510.62115.811
7610.11414.806
779.78213.755
789.48712.825
799.11911.972
808.70410.909
818.3909.968
827.9449.123
837.4928.223
847.1397.517
856.8036.938
866.4096.208
876.1025.511
885.7184.991
895.2894.411
904.8803.823
914.5213.324
924.1182.794
933.6962.295
943.2821.772
952.9251.451
962.4781.131
972.0240.753
981.5250.501
990.7720.284


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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