Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile7.22011.280
Median15.32829.861
Mean23.54546.885
75% Quartile31.15166.997
Interquartile Range23.93155.717

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1120.134218.584
297.507185.333
385.805172.333
478.782161.668
573.137153.787
668.095142.852
764.197135.186
860.522128.039
957.886120.928
1055.216115.600
1152.770111.190
1250.672106.334
1348.540102.660
1446.43498.989
1544.37694.967
1642.70191.787
1740.77788.090
1839.45884.345
1937.80781.070
2036.19978.506
2135.28976.044
2234.13073.322
2333.24071.432
2432.15368.698
2531.15166.998
2630.19465.544
2729.20863.345
2828.20361.615
2927.44259.623
3026.41857.454
3125.69555.493
3225.01753.526
3324.27451.990
3423.58250.493
3522.96248.464
3622.23146.866
3721.62645.293
3821.13243.845
3920.63242.670
4020.08141.147
4119.56239.697
4218.94838.637
4318.38637.754
4417.94936.556
4517.53335.493
4617.09934.320
4716.57733.272
4816.15531.927
4915.74130.926
5015.32829.861
5114.99028.909
5214.59427.971
5314.28326.892
5413.92525.880
5513.56824.871
5613.25523.674
5712.96822.980
5812.61122.289
5912.14921.542
6011.88920.581
6111.61519.642
6211.26918.970
6310.95518.352
6410.55817.606
6510.30217.036
669.94316.463
679.67015.935
689.30815.259
699.01314.577
708.77514.096
718.50513.449
728.19712.940
737.84412.353
747.57611.839
757.22011.280
766.96510.789
776.66110.265
786.3969.789
796.1269.342
805.8288.768
815.4988.241
825.2427.750
834.9387.206
844.6946.761
854.4086.382
864.1765.884
873.9065.382
883.6114.989
893.2954.527
902.9334.028
912.6583.576
922.4593.059
932.2292.527
941.9321.906
951.6321.480
961.2751.008
970.8580.356
980.3720.000
990.0000.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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