Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile21.5827.263
Median48.23221.418
Mean74.83956.961
75% Quartile101.23261.294
Interquartile Range79.65054.031

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1349.407501.357
2306.204373.775
3277.165325.781
4256.146288.430
5240.262261.025
6222.254226.595
7207.864203.706
8195.311183.357
9184.774164.493
10174.761151.213
11169.127140.783
12163.525129.916
13156.203122.012
14150.594114.370
15145.810106.461
16140.633100.545
17135.41793.815
18130.33187.339
19125.56681.982
20122.18477.960
21116.31474.202
22111.58970.031
23107.99867.450
24104.47363.593
25101.24461.320
2698.45959.394
2795.00756.469
2892.08554.238
2989.12751.852
3086.71249.207
3184.46146.933
3282.05444.622
3379.79442.906
3477.57041.334
3575.12339.100
3673.12637.457
3771.37835.819
3868.93734.372
3966.37833.185
4064.15531.691
4162.00730.285
4260.29229.293
4358.65528.448
4457.13927.348
4555.43626.382
4653.96625.303
4752.40624.395
4851.15423.210
4949.57522.325
5048.23221.418
5146.99320.614
5245.15019.844
5343.46218.924
5442.38218.125
5541.25117.265
5640.00016.347
5739.02315.799
5837.61615.249
5936.45714.680
6035.35113.920
6134.20713.225
6232.97512.726
6332.05112.262
6431.28411.723
6530.34311.306
6629.39210.888
6728.34710.507
6827.35710.023
6926.6839.539
7025.8249.200
7124.9738.748
7224.0968.395
7323.1237.992
7422.3747.641
7521.5567.262
7620.6506.933
7719.6906.584
7818.6766.270
7917.7415.977
8017.1065.604
8116.2165.265
8215.3074.952
8314.4594.608
8413.6844.330
8512.8444.095
8612.0673.789
8711.3753.485
8810.6723.248
8910.0122.974
909.3072.681
918.6372.419
927.7842.124
936.8791.825
946.0991.484
955.0291.255
964.0611.006
973.1950.672
982.1870.412
991.0430.141


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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