Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile17.44323.295
Median39.13664.506
Mean65.790128.063
75% Quartile86.273169.301
Interquartile Range68.830146.007

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1364.599749.216
2299.749616.485
3265.140564.711
4236.856522.346
5215.235491.128
6196.907448.005
7183.790417.954
8175.246390.120
9163.108362.648
10154.398342.247
11147.446325.499
12141.089307.227
13136.205293.537
14130.406279.984
15125.686265.300
16121.183253.819
17116.272240.629
18111.695227.458
19107.640216.105
20103.804207.330
2199.743199.002
2295.932189.915
2392.631183.680
2489.095174.773
2586.293169.304
2683.561164.668
2780.447157.738
2877.871152.350
2975.593146.217
3072.832139.633
3170.424133.763
3268.009127.953
3365.677123.474
3464.044119.153
3562.190113.377
3660.363108.887
3758.649104.520
3856.526100.548
3955.10197.359
4053.03293.267
4151.77289.417
4250.09886.632
4348.42584.331
4447.20281.235
4545.73278.515
4644.37775.543
4742.93272.911
4841.82569.566
4940.53867.103
5039.13664.506
5138.13962.206
5237.08559.959
5336.08357.399
5435.03355.019
5534.08552.671
5633.20649.913
5732.25448.328
5831.37446.761
5930.52945.079
6029.63942.931
6128.78540.855
6228.09739.381
6327.10338.036
6426.34436.424
6525.55335.200
6624.57933.977
6723.71332.858
6822.93231.434
6922.16130.012
7021.43129.013
7120.69927.680
7219.83726.640
7319.15625.449
7418.27024.413
7517.43523.293
7616.83722.319
7716.09621.284
7815.56320.353
7914.83519.484
8014.12418.377
8113.35717.369
8212.78916.439
8312.20215.417
8411.52514.588
8510.66813.889
8610.03012.975
879.46212.067
888.97811.360
898.38910.540
907.7979.664
917.0908.879
926.4067.994
935.8907.098
945.1876.073
954.5735.383
963.6194.632
972.7913.623
981.9792.836
990.8902.015


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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