Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile73.71032.776
Median133.00584.812
Mean162.216137.681
75% Quartile225.508196.092
Interquartile Range151.799163.316

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1549.337646.192
2484.324548.559
3446.101510.316
4416.615478.899
5394.623455.647
6375.818423.329
7361.378400.624
8345.033379.415
9332.966358.265
10323.016342.388
11314.447329.222
12304.582314.700
13295.485303.695
14288.509292.682
15281.574280.599
16273.212271.030
17268.028259.891
18261.707248.593
19254.334238.701
20248.549230.948
21243.201223.498
22238.415215.257
23233.499209.532
24229.765201.247
25225.513196.095
26221.392191.686
27215.692185.024
28210.906179.782
29206.331173.746
30202.144167.179
31197.749161.247
32194.426155.301
33189.907150.664
34184.638146.147
35180.269140.037
36176.420135.231
37173.117130.506
38169.361126.168
39165.962122.654
40163.009118.104
41159.742113.783
42156.094110.632
43152.571108.012
44149.796104.463
45146.921101.323
46144.23397.867
47141.03594.786
48137.89590.842
49135.68687.917
50133.00584.812
51130.25882.047
52127.86679.330
53124.33076.216
54121.90273.303
55119.30470.412
56116.46866.995
57113.76865.021
58110.96163.062
59108.84960.950
60106.61058.241
61104.32755.609
62101.97653.732
6399.60352.012
6497.39249.945
6595.09348.370
6693.48146.789
6791.10945.341
6889.15043.490
6987.37541.635
7085.44440.328
7183.20438.578
7280.67437.208
7378.52335.636
7475.90634.262
7573.67132.774
7670.63131.475
7768.73430.092
7866.65028.844
7964.61927.675
8062.02226.181
8159.82324.817
8257.29023.554
8354.55822.161
8452.90321.027
8550.46220.068
8648.41618.812
8746.12317.557
8843.56816.578
8940.76915.437
9038.52514.213
9136.42313.113
9233.69011.865
9331.29810.595
9428.2639.133
9524.9758.140
9621.9117.056
9718.8395.583
9815.5274.421
999.9683.192


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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