Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile9.00715.813
Median18.95655.375
Mean28.67068.635
75% Quartile38.031107.041
Interquartile Range29.02491.228

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1141.071244.323
2118.144215.880
3101.689204.704
494.525195.497
587.264188.661
682.129179.118
776.815172.376
873.077166.040
969.389159.675
1066.213154.859
1163.271150.835
1260.625146.360
1358.139142.939
1455.666139.485
1553.641135.657
1651.254132.591
1749.604128.981
1847.580125.267
1946.168121.965
2044.713119.340
2143.089116.784
2242.018113.915
2340.711111.893
2439.184108.920
2538.039107.042
2637.086105.415
2735.760102.919
2834.751100.922
2933.45798.581
3032.55195.982
3131.62693.582
3230.65091.122
3329.81589.163
3428.87187.217
3527.99884.523
3627.12182.348
3726.49180.159
3825.74878.100
3925.17476.396
4024.61174.138
4123.90771.937
4223.30070.293
4322.61068.900
4422.00766.976
4521.52765.233
4620.99763.269
4720.43861.477
4819.86759.120
4919.45257.326
5018.95655.375
5118.37053.597
5217.83951.809
5317.32549.711
5416.80347.699
5516.30745.654
5615.84543.174
5715.42141.711
5815.02140.235
5914.64438.620
6014.21036.514
6113.86034.430
6213.45632.924
6313.12231.532
6412.75629.844
6512.27328.549
6611.96127.245
6711.55326.046
6811.17524.513
6910.89722.977
7010.52221.898
7110.19520.462
729.89819.346
739.61118.077
749.29516.981
758.99215.811
768.67614.806
778.32213.755
787.98312.825
797.71611.972
807.32310.909
817.0459.968
826.6659.123
836.3678.223
846.0677.517
855.6956.938
865.4066.208
875.0695.511
884.6904.991
894.3174.411
904.0253.823
913.7663.324
923.4792.794
933.1622.295
942.7451.772
952.4001.451
962.0231.131
971.6570.753
981.1390.501
990.5780.284


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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