Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie



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Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie ( Mar 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.5334.212
Median3.10313.198
Mean9.41938.073
75% Quartile10.11939.172
Interquartile Range9.58634.960

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
191.329362.605
266.240263.875
354.061227.632
446.949199.435
540.498179.679
635.988154.032
731.901137.395
829.379122.940
927.064109.594
1024.755100.273
1122.81392.992
1221.30385.420
1320.19679.994
1419.00374.824
1517.90669.442
1616.69365.387
1715.77960.888
1814.66956.557
1913.80952.949
2013.05150.235
2112.36247.718
2211.83145.034
2311.22843.228
2410.66740.698
2510.11939.173
269.67437.895
279.12836.013
288.72434.570
298.27232.950
307.87731.236
317.44529.728
327.11528.255
336.70327.132
346.40226.058
356.14424.637
365.84923.543
375.57122.489
385.37121.538
395.16020.779
404.91519.811
414.66918.907
424.47018.258
434.27717.723
444.13017.007
453.93416.380
463.75415.699
473.59515.099
483.42414.340
493.27313.783
503.10313.198
512.97712.682
522.82912.180
532.71911.610
542.56911.082
552.44110.562
562.2939.955
572.1659.606
582.0779.263
591.9768.895
601.8528.427
611.7687.975
621.6677.656
631.5597.365
641.4297.016
651.3486.753
661.2706.489
671.1996.249
681.0875.944
690.9955.640
700.9185.427
710.8215.142
720.7414.921
730.6604.668
740.5954.449
750.5324.212
760.4554.006
770.3883.788
780.3173.592
790.2373.409
800.1613.177
810.1072.966
820.0422.772
830.0002.559
840.0002.387
850.0002.242
860.0002.053
870.0001.865
880.0001.719
890.0001.550
900.0001.371
910.0001.210
920.0001.030
930.0000.848
940.0000.640
950.0000.501
960.0000.350
970.0000.149
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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