Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie



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Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie ( Apr 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile5.9037.263
Median14.74421.418
Mean29.39556.961
75% Quartile34.99761.294
Interquartile Range29.09454.031

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1203.281501.357
2166.334373.775
3141.681325.781
4122.329288.430
5110.524261.025
699.895226.595
790.972203.706
883.128183.357
976.580164.493
1071.445151.213
1167.933140.783
1264.365129.916
1361.118122.012
1458.226114.370
1555.193106.461
1652.286100.545
1750.29593.815
1847.60087.339
1945.68281.982
2043.69577.960
2141.68074.202
2239.36170.031
2337.76567.450
2436.32363.593
2535.00161.320
2633.94559.394
2732.61456.469
2831.39254.238
2930.18351.852
3029.20749.207
3128.26546.933
3227.52944.622
3326.61742.906
3425.67441.334
3524.72239.100
3623.98637.457
3723.05935.819
3822.26434.372
3921.43533.185
4020.85231.691
4120.07530.285
4219.38429.293
4318.68128.448
4418.11527.348
4517.67926.382
4617.14825.303
4716.57124.395
4815.95123.210
4915.32922.325
5014.74421.418
5114.34420.614
5213.93019.844
5313.56118.924
5413.01718.125
5512.53217.265
5612.05016.347
5711.75615.799
5811.35515.249
5911.01114.680
6010.61113.920
6110.16513.225
629.88712.726
639.48912.262
649.12611.723
658.88311.306
668.64310.888
678.24110.507
687.94010.023
697.6139.539
707.3279.200
716.9908.748
726.6908.395
736.3837.992
746.1177.641
755.9007.262
765.5796.933
775.3276.584
784.9896.270
794.7625.977
804.5035.604
814.2795.265
823.9694.952
833.7284.608
843.4714.330
853.1574.095
862.8683.789
872.6423.485
882.3353.248
892.1232.974
901.8702.681
911.5552.419
921.3672.124
931.1331.825
940.8731.484
950.5781.255
960.2841.006
970.0000.672
980.0000.412
990.0000.141


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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