Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie



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Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie ( Jun 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile20.81523.295
Median46.03364.506
Mean74.992128.063
75% Quartile99.857169.301
Interquartile Range79.042146.007

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1389.854749.216
2325.887616.485
3292.937564.711
4261.625522.346
5239.353491.128
6219.779448.005
7207.077417.954
8197.298390.120
9184.999362.648
10175.704342.247
11167.269325.499
12160.746307.227
13155.498293.537
14149.516279.984
15143.853265.300
16139.508253.819
17133.314240.629
18127.988227.458
19123.758216.105
20119.446207.330
21115.830199.002
22111.577189.915
23107.049183.680
24103.224174.773
2599.859169.304
2696.859164.668
2793.502157.738
2890.481152.350
2987.769146.217
3084.938139.633
3182.170133.763
3279.296127.953
3376.539123.474
3474.579119.153
3572.269113.377
3670.695108.887
3768.475104.520
3865.895100.548
3963.91697.359
4061.99793.267
4160.42789.417
4258.80486.632
4356.81184.331
4455.09681.235
4553.75578.515
4651.97075.543
4750.48772.911
4848.93369.566
4947.58067.103
5046.03364.506
5144.88362.206
5243.40159.959
5342.26857.399
5441.18055.019
5540.05652.671
5639.13549.913
5738.01848.328
5837.05346.761
5935.98945.079
6034.90242.931
6133.97040.855
6233.06739.381
6332.02138.036
6431.09336.424
6530.05935.200
6629.02033.977
6727.97632.858
6827.14631.434
6926.32930.012
7025.39029.013
7124.50227.680
7223.60726.640
7322.65325.449
7421.71824.413
7520.81323.293
7619.98622.319
7719.18321.284
7818.49720.353
7917.77019.484
8016.81018.377
8116.01517.369
8215.27516.439
8314.60615.417
8413.82814.588
8512.76813.889
8612.02812.975
8711.32912.067
8810.75911.360
8910.17310.540
909.5209.664
918.5278.879
927.8567.994
937.2147.098
946.3636.073
955.6325.383
964.5484.632
973.5703.623
982.6192.836
991.3502.015


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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