Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie



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Probability distribution for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie ( Jul 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile34.52132.776
Median68.29784.812
Mean92.771137.681
75% Quartile125.668196.092
Interquartile Range91.146163.316

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1396.540646.192
2333.444548.559
3295.524510.316
4273.289478.899
5257.844455.647
6243.191423.329
7227.341400.624
8217.718379.415
9206.146358.265
10198.587342.388
11191.665329.222
12185.016314.700
13179.818303.695
14173.280292.682
15166.883280.599
16162.809271.030
17158.449259.891
18153.713248.593
19148.902238.701
20145.126230.948
21140.684223.498
22136.470215.257
23131.641209.532
24129.254201.247
25125.745196.095
26123.052191.686
27119.687185.024
28116.562179.782
29113.125173.746
30110.527167.179
31107.945161.247
32104.739155.301
33102.372150.664
3499.559146.147
3597.305140.037
3695.061135.231
3792.936130.506
3890.594126.168
3988.391122.654
4086.328118.104
4184.901113.783
4283.051110.632
4380.821108.012
4478.956104.463
4577.256101.323
4674.91797.867
4773.00094.786
4871.20390.842
4969.73487.917
5068.29784.812
5166.51082.047
5264.98879.330
5363.45776.216
5462.04973.303
5560.71470.412
5659.28966.995
5757.70465.021
5856.10663.062
5954.85660.950
6053.48258.241
6151.73655.609
6250.38953.732
6349.32852.012
6448.33449.945
6546.85648.370
6645.62946.789
6744.39645.341
6843.25943.490
6942.35741.635
7041.16540.328
7139.73238.578
7238.35437.208
7337.11135.636
7435.97634.262
7534.51632.774
7633.59231.475
7732.08530.092
7831.00428.844
7929.62527.675
8028.54426.181
8127.22724.817
8225.96223.554
8324.88322.161
8423.72821.027
8522.44020.068
8621.17918.812
8719.80617.557
8818.59016.578
8917.44815.437
9016.32814.213
9115.33113.113
9213.87111.865
9312.02410.595
9410.7199.133
959.2878.140
967.9537.056
976.3255.583
984.3714.421
991.3883.192


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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