Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Historical and exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie( Sep 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Sep37.2633.4681.92710.64388.154
Sep-Oct70.6764.5202.00915.919230.616
Sep-Nov93.0885.1042.00921.654276.567

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10159.352203.392
20122.078159.164
3097.675130.156
4078.368103.182
5063.29180.207
6050.88357.145
7040.22438.546
8029.74122.762
9019.24810.191

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1264.037314.902
2233.309279.447
3215.137265.516
4200.689254.039
5191.412245.519
6183.388233.625
7176.286225.222
8170.505217.325
9164.892209.394
10159.352203.392
11153.910198.379
12150.137192.804
13146.198188.542
14141.391184.240
15138.060179.472
16134.257175.655
17131.156171.160
18128.268166.537
19125.254162.429
20122.078159.164
21119.242155.985
22116.581152.417
23113.881149.904
24111.305146.210
25108.585143.877
26106.162141.857
27103.734138.759
28101.995136.280
2999.870133.378
3097.675130.156
3195.912127.183
3293.402124.138
3391.030121.714
3489.522119.308
3587.494115.979
3685.540113.295
3783.551110.594
3881.882108.057
3980.052105.959
4078.368103.182
4176.699100.475
4275.49098.457
4373.56696.748
4471.74094.388
4570.28592.253
4668.93989.850
4767.63787.657
4866.13784.778
4964.73282.587
5063.29180.207
5162.17578.037
5261.00775.858
5359.49273.300
5458.16470.847
5557.09468.352
5656.03365.322
5754.61463.532
5853.45361.723
5952.25759.741
6050.88357.145
6150.05154.566
6248.85252.692
6347.60450.951
6446.33448.827
6545.30447.187
6644.29145.523
6743.21443.982
6842.30041.993
6941.11739.978
7040.22438.546
7139.27636.617
7238.21535.096
7337.01833.343
7436.06531.806
7535.26630.137
7634.22028.680
7732.71127.127
7831.60625.729
7930.67324.423
8029.74122.762
8128.71621.255
8227.45319.870
8326.45818.358
8425.32817.141
8524.27416.122
8623.42914.805
8722.49213.511
8821.31512.518
8920.20011.383
9019.24810.191
9117.8609.146
9216.4507.995
9315.3086.863
9413.9985.615
9512.3874.806
9611.1313.960
979.6352.883
987.8292.101
995.7141.351


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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