Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Historical and exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2011) (GL)Observed (2012) (GL)Minimum (1982) (GL)10 yr average (2002+) (GL)Maximum (1971) (GL)
Dec11.9585.7811.6050.00011.94842.534
Dec-Jan23.3729.0983.5930.27518.010115.273
Dec-Feb32.72724.1518.1401.79122.136136.510

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1077.863
2050.326
3036.352
4026.283
5019.589
6014.167
7010.369
807.204
904.313

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1165.772
2136.467
3125.153
4115.965
5109.241
6100.029
793.666
887.818
982.089
1077.863
1174.410
1270.659
1367.859
1465.094
1562.105
1659.771
1757.093
1854.418
1952.111
2050.326
2148.629
2246.772
2345.495
2443.666
2542.538
2641.580
2740.143
2839.020
2937.737
3036.352
3135.110
3233.873
3332.914
3431.983
3530.731
3629.751
3728.790
3827.911
3927.201
4026.283
4125.413
4224.779
4324.252
4423.539
4522.909
4622.215
4721.596
4820.803
4920.215
5019.589
5119.031
5218.482
5317.851
5417.259
5516.671
5615.972
5715.567
5815.164
5914.728
6014.167
6113.619
6213.226
6312.865
6412.429
6512.095
6611.759
6711.450
6811.053
6910.652
7010.369
719.987
729.687
739.340
749.036
758.704
768.412
778.100
787.816
797.548
807.204
816.887
826.591
836.262
845.992
855.761
865.457
875.150
884.907
894.622
904.313
914.031
923.706
933.371
942.976
952.702
962.397
971.970
981.619
991.232


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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