Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Historical and exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2004) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1950) (GL)
Mar12.804179.67115.8960.00020.601116.903
Mar-Apr27.423190.89917.0680.00022.160302.061
Mar-May41.894198.45818.2820.00023.547390.068

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1089.978100.273
2052.92150.235
3034.58231.236
4023.81519.811
5016.73213.198
6011.6398.427
707.6855.427
804.6033.177
901.8751.371

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1232.020362.605
2184.527263.875
3161.489227.632
4145.186199.435
5132.760179.679
6121.816154.032
7112.216137.395
8103.313122.940
996.431109.594
1089.978100.273
1184.21892.992
1280.29685.420
1376.00979.994
1472.04974.824
1567.84469.442
1663.57965.387
1761.33960.888
1858.65456.557
1955.58352.949
2052.92150.235
2150.68347.718
2248.47045.034
2346.35943.228
2443.89540.698
2542.09139.173
2640.58637.895
2738.78236.013
2837.45734.570
2935.86432.950
3034.58231.236
3133.40029.728
3232.02028.255
3330.74527.132
3429.56126.058
3528.64724.637
3627.58323.543
3726.81822.489
3825.77321.538
3924.64220.779
4023.81519.811
4122.94118.907
4222.09918.258
4321.27317.723
4420.58717.007
4519.85516.380
4619.07915.699
4718.53915.099
4817.83614.340
4917.30513.783
5016.73213.198
5116.18112.682
5215.64112.180
5315.01411.610
5414.41311.082
5513.91510.562
5613.4219.955
5713.0639.606
5812.6359.263
5912.0288.895
6011.6398.427
6111.1367.975
6210.7427.656
6310.1977.365
649.8527.016
659.5516.753
669.2526.489
678.8636.249
688.4895.944
698.0755.640
707.6855.427
717.4335.142
727.0174.921
736.6934.668
746.4034.449
756.0654.212
765.7424.006
775.4383.788
785.1663.592
794.8743.409
804.6033.177
814.2802.966
824.0032.772
833.7622.559
843.5072.387
853.2722.242
863.0352.053
872.7041.865
882.4271.719
892.1901.550
901.8751.371
911.5831.210
921.3221.030
931.1240.848
940.8900.640
950.5850.501
960.3710.350
970.1040.149
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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