Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Historical and exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1975) (GL)
Sep37.80015.7633.4681.92710.69988.154
Sep-Oct71.72626.8514.5202.00916.426230.616
Sep-Nov94.49628.9535.1042.00922.733276.567

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10115.314203.392
2084.110159.164
3064.251130.156
4050.565103.182
5039.70180.207
6031.47457.145
7024.27038.546
8017.70022.762
9011.03010.191

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1210.072314.902
2184.489279.447
3164.098265.516
4153.597254.039
5144.915245.519
6137.911233.625
7131.158225.222
8124.271217.325
9119.403209.394
10115.314203.392
11111.629198.379
12106.799192.804
13103.906188.542
14100.955184.240
1597.656179.472
1694.260175.655
1791.489171.160
1888.904166.537
1986.192162.429
2084.110159.164
2181.824155.985
2279.342152.417
2376.610149.904
2474.440146.210
2572.668143.877
2670.584141.857
2769.207138.759
2867.728136.280
2965.939133.378
3064.251130.156
3162.298127.183
3260.624124.138
3359.096121.714
3458.084119.308
3556.705115.979
3655.220113.295
3754.144110.594
3852.720108.057
3951.585105.959
4050.565103.182
4149.522100.475
4248.32398.457
4346.89996.748
4445.82394.388
4544.80092.253
4643.75589.850
4742.70487.657
4841.53384.778
4940.63682.587
5039.70180.207
5138.74178.037
5237.80175.858
5336.95973.300
5435.96470.847
5535.28468.352
5634.40765.322
5733.80563.532
5833.06661.723
5932.33459.741
6031.47457.145
6130.68254.566
6229.99252.692
6329.32750.951
6428.60048.827
6527.79147.187
6627.19545.523
6726.37243.982
6825.53641.993
6924.94139.978
7024.27038.546
7123.41436.617
7222.82835.096
7322.21833.343
7421.66331.806
7520.99330.137
7620.46328.680
7719.67927.127
7819.06525.729
7918.45824.423
8017.70022.762
8117.12421.255
8216.48019.870
8315.70618.358
8415.14317.141
8514.51816.122
8613.70314.805
8713.08013.511
8812.40012.518
8911.77111.383
9011.03010.191
9110.2769.146
929.4227.995
938.7826.863
947.8615.615
956.8344.806
966.0723.960
975.2422.883
983.9952.101
992.7581.351


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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