Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


  • Jan

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Historical and exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie ( Jan 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1978) (GL)
Jan11.2721.9890.0000.3426.26181.190
Jan-Feb20.5926.5350.0000.34210.42991.326
Jan-Mar33.44522.4310.6870.34230.560216.068

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1078.770
2044.379
3029.655
4020.122
5014.263
609.805
706.852
804.516
902.511

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1221.548
2170.873
3151.797
4136.626
5125.759
6111.261
7101.558
892.893
984.665
1078.770
1174.070
1269.087
1365.451
1461.934
1558.213
1655.367
1752.165
1849.035
1946.391
2044.379
2142.495
2240.465
2339.087
2437.139
2535.954
2634.955
2733.474
2832.330
2931.036
3029.655
3128.432
3227.226
3326.301
3425.411
3524.226
3623.307
3722.414
3821.604
3920.955
4020.122
4119.338
4218.772
4318.304
4417.674
4517.121
4616.516
4715.980
4815.298
4914.795
5014.263
5113.793
5213.332
5312.806
5412.315
5511.831
5611.260
5710.931
5810.605
5910.254
609.805
619.370
629.060
638.776
648.435
658.176
667.915
677.677
687.372
697.067
706.852
716.564
726.338
736.079
745.852
755.607
765.392
775.164
784.957
794.764
804.516
814.290
824.079
833.847
843.658
853.498
863.287
873.076
882.911
892.718
902.511
912.324
922.111
931.893
941.641
951.469
961.280
971.020
980.814
990.592


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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