Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie



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Historical and exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Abercrombie ( Feb 2014 )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2013) (GL)Observed (2014) (GL)Minimum (2009) (GL)10 yr average (2004+) (GL)Maximum (1950) (GL)
Feb9.3204.5470.0000.0004.16811.981
Feb-Mar22.17320.4430.6870.00024.299128.884
Feb-Apr36.57821.6155.9940.00025.819314.042

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1087.249
2044.917
3028.356
4018.224
5012.278
607.935
705.171
803.073
901.361

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1293.932
2217.688
3189.432
4167.273
5151.626
6131.127
7117.694
8105.923
994.961
1087.249
1181.190
1274.855
1370.293
1465.929
1561.367
1657.916
1754.074
1850.362
1947.258
2044.917
2142.741
2240.414
2338.846
2436.644
2535.313
2634.198
2732.550
2831.286
2929.864
3028.356
3127.027
3225.727
3324.733
3423.783
3522.522
3621.551
3720.613
3819.765
3919.088
4018.224
4117.415
4216.833
4316.354
4415.711
4515.148
4614.535
4713.995
4813.310
4912.807
5012.278
5111.811
5211.356
5310.838
5410.358
559.886
569.332
579.014
588.700
598.364
607.935
617.521
627.228
636.960
646.640
656.397
666.154
675.932
685.650
695.368
705.171
714.907
724.702
734.467
744.262
754.041
763.849
773.645
783.462
793.291
803.073
812.874
822.692
832.491
842.328
852.190
862.011
871.833
881.694
891.533
901.361
911.207
921.034
930.858
940.658
950.522
960.376
970.178
980.024
990.000


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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