Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Product list for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing( Jul 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1056.347137.763
2034.85791.382
3024.78663.418
4017.82741.467
5013.09227.070
609.76216.498
706.95610.134
804.7185.716
902.5132.547

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1152.920258.169
2115.570219.794
3100.972204.723
490.150192.313
581.943183.106
674.656170.266
768.718161.208
863.872152.709
959.800144.191
1056.347137.763
1153.136132.407
1250.909126.469
1348.407121.945
1446.173117.396
1543.675112.376
1641.395108.378
1739.545103.696
1837.92198.916
1936.31294.703
2034.85791.382
2133.77088.174
2232.54584.607
2331.34182.117
2430.38578.497
2529.41076.236
2628.28774.295
2727.29171.353
2826.38669.029
2925.76166.346
3024.78663.418
3123.92160.766
3223.12558.103
3322.29856.025
3421.46153.999
3520.85451.258
3620.20149.105
3719.49046.990
3818.96445.053
3918.40943.487
4017.82741.467
4117.28839.555
4216.72738.167
4316.23937.017
4415.81135.467
4515.31634.102
4614.88732.609
4714.40431.287
4814.01029.607
4913.52128.371
5013.09227.070
5112.80825.921
5212.43224.802
5312.03623.531
5411.67422.355
5511.31921.201
5611.00619.854
5710.59819.085
5810.29318.328
5910.03317.521
609.76216.498
619.50115.517
629.15714.827
638.87914.201
648.50513.458
658.24112.898
668.02512.342
677.82211.838
687.56111.201
697.28510.572
706.95610.134
716.7419.555
726.4679.108
736.2538.601
745.9968.164
755.7847.698
765.5657.296
775.3196.874
785.1036.499
794.9216.152
804.7185.716
814.5185.325
824.2534.969
833.9994.584
843.7734.276
853.5784.020
863.3123.691
873.0943.369
882.9283.122
892.7312.841
902.5132.547
912.2402.290
922.0202.006
931.8161.728
941.5741.420
951.3631.220
961.1731.010
970.9610.741
980.6340.545
990.2770.354


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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