Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Product list for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing( Aug 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1071.834127.338
2049.98487.534
3037.50762.800
4028.38942.384
5021.68428.216
6016.95117.370
7012.77710.698
808.9946.029
905.4702.677

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1147.434229.499
2124.082196.971
3110.382184.193
4101.844173.670
593.484165.860
687.985154.965
782.957147.274
877.922140.053
974.555132.810
1071.834127.338
1168.617122.774
1265.770117.708
1363.777113.844
1461.556109.952
1559.503105.650
1656.930102.217
1754.45398.189
1852.82294.064
1951.41690.417
2049.98487.534
2148.33384.741
2246.56681.624
2345.26879.442
2444.08876.257
2543.01974.260
2641.64172.541
2740.83969.924
2839.61267.849
2938.58165.441
3037.50762.800
3136.35660.395
3235.29057.964
3334.37556.056
3433.35754.187
3532.50351.643
3631.58249.630
3730.81647.641
3829.87145.807
3929.11144.318
4028.38942.384
4127.64540.543
4226.84239.198
4325.88838.080
4425.23436.565
4524.53535.224
4623.96133.751
4723.39532.439
4822.68030.764
4922.19729.526
5021.68428.216
5121.28827.055
5220.76925.919
5320.30324.625
5419.67423.422
5519.28222.238
5618.86320.850
5718.34720.056
5817.96219.272
5917.40218.435
6016.95117.370
6116.51016.348
6216.10715.627
6315.63414.973
6415.20514.194
6514.69513.606
6614.29513.022
6714.03412.492
6813.62011.823
6913.16511.160
7012.77710.698
7112.33010.087
7212.0289.615
7311.6219.080
7411.1418.618
7510.7948.125
7610.4267.700
779.9437.254
789.5746.857
799.3046.490
808.9946.029
818.6525.615
828.1585.239
837.8384.831
847.4834.505
857.1864.234
866.8193.886
876.3903.545
886.0613.285
895.7782.988
905.4702.677
915.1182.406
924.7072.106
934.3271.812
943.9821.488
953.5941.277
963.0121.056
972.6060.774
982.0510.568
991.3450.368


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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