Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Product list for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1054.19588.291
2035.95659.714
3026.79142.540
4020.41928.911
5015.85719.692
6012.56212.607
709.3638.119
806.6554.834
904.2092.322

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1127.123162.958
2101.115139.134
388.084129.781
478.902122.082
572.560116.371
666.779108.411
762.730102.799
859.93797.537
956.57492.266
1054.19588.291
1151.54684.982
1248.70581.315
1346.15978.524
1444.46675.718
1542.68872.625
1640.96970.163
1739.64167.282
1838.41464.343
1937.20461.754
2035.95659.714
2134.65757.744
2233.72455.554
2332.76454.026
2431.66151.804
2530.73550.416
2629.78849.225
2728.90247.418
2828.20445.991
2927.41244.341
3026.79142.540
3126.02240.907
3225.33939.264
3324.63937.980
3424.09836.727
3523.45135.028
3622.98033.689
3722.30432.372
3821.68131.161
3921.05230.180
4020.41928.911
4119.91627.705
4219.37626.827
4318.89126.097
4418.51325.111
4518.03024.239
4617.51023.282
4717.10722.430
4816.71821.344
4916.30220.541
5015.85719.692
5115.48718.938
5215.13818.201
5314.67917.359
5414.36616.577
5514.03115.804
5613.71414.897
5713.43014.376
5813.17013.862
5912.87313.310
6012.56212.607
6112.15511.930
6211.83911.450
6311.52911.013
6411.18110.491
6510.93910.096
6610.5839.702
6710.2429.343
689.9648.888
699.6708.435
709.3638.119
719.0017.698
728.7487.371
738.5176.999
748.2926.676
757.9946.330
767.7666.030
777.5015.713
787.2195.430
796.9185.167
806.6554.834
816.3424.533
826.1174.257
835.8833.957
845.6653.715
855.3933.513
865.1963.250
874.9312.992
884.6322.793
894.4142.564
904.2092.322
913.9792.108
923.7071.869
933.3311.632
943.0191.366
952.6881.190
962.3901.002
972.0910.757
981.7410.572
991.1250.387


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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