Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Product list for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1021.87466.441
2013.10838.586
308.63824.662
406.12215.478
504.31010.080
603.1286.261
702.1563.946
801.3112.286
900.6401.032

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
172.970147.731
252.647121.465
343.580111.183
438.944102.746
535.39996.510
631.16687.864
727.82981.812
825.35076.183
923.58270.603
1021.87466.441
1120.47563.014
1219.38759.262
1318.36156.444
1417.32153.647
1516.47150.611
1615.68148.233
1714.81645.497
1814.24642.763
1913.65840.407
2013.10838.586
2112.54336.859
2212.03634.977
2311.66233.687
2411.04431.849
2510.55730.723
2610.12729.770
279.70528.349
289.40627.248
298.97125.999
308.63824.662
318.27023.477
327.99522.308
337.77321.411
347.53920.550
357.24419.405
366.99918.519
376.78717.663
386.53916.888
396.31516.269
406.12215.478
415.88514.739
425.73214.208
435.53913.770
445.36213.184
455.17712.672
464.96312.116
474.83311.626
484.69411.007
494.47310.554
504.31010.080
514.2119.662
524.0929.256
533.9198.796
543.8008.371
553.6817.955
563.5687.470
573.4307.193
583.3296.921
593.2366.630
603.1286.261
613.0355.907
622.9235.658
632.8115.431
642.7435.162
652.6444.958
662.5654.755
672.4554.571
682.3574.338
692.2374.107
702.1563.946
712.0593.732
721.9853.566
731.9143.377
741.8393.214
751.7643.039
761.6642.888
771.5552.728
781.4622.586
791.3882.454
801.3112.286
811.2502.136
821.1791.998
831.1161.847
841.0331.726
850.9731.625
860.9101.494
870.8391.366
880.7801.266
890.7111.152
900.6401.032
910.5800.926
920.5110.807
930.4450.689
940.3810.557
950.2870.470
960.2300.377
970.1610.256
980.0700.165
990.0000.074


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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