Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Product list for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1011.73527.529
207.54315.472
305.35410.517
403.8377.283
502.9125.243
602.1443.639
701.4892.547
800.9311.644
900.4460.830

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
134.732107.216
225.96071.436
321.63560.297
419.07552.387
517.03946.955
615.73840.517
714.54636.438
813.25532.922
912.55229.737
1011.73527.529
1111.07425.808
1210.58424.025
139.96822.731
149.59521.481
159.18420.186
168.74519.215
178.37118.107
188.10217.036
197.86016.145
207.54315.472
217.29814.840
227.02214.134
236.82813.695
246.61613.034
256.36112.643
266.10512.309
275.91811.800
285.71711.408
295.55910.987
305.35410.517
315.15210.110
324.9409.692
334.7789.380
344.6069.093
354.4868.681
364.3108.375
374.1858.068
384.0597.795
393.9467.569
403.8377.283
413.7267.012
423.6206.819
433.5326.654
443.4436.438
453.3406.247
463.2506.032
473.1495.850
483.0665.610
492.9885.429
502.9125.243
512.8225.077
522.7314.916
532.6424.723
542.5714.554
552.4894.370
562.4164.172
572.3524.053
582.2763.933
592.1873.807
602.1443.639
612.0663.483
621.9993.370
631.9513.264
641.8703.141
651.8023.044
661.7402.947
671.6642.858
681.6092.743
691.5532.628
701.4892.547
711.4322.437
721.3752.351
731.3122.252
741.2442.165
751.1742.071
761.1391.987
771.0831.899
781.0301.818
790.9861.742
800.9311.644
810.8771.555
820.8331.471
830.7961.378
840.7481.302
850.7001.237
860.6621.151
870.5911.065
880.5460.997
890.4900.917
900.4460.830
910.3800.751
920.3150.661
930.2630.567
940.2110.458
950.1390.382
960.0690.297
970.0000.180
980.0000.083
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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