Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Product list for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1019.685
2010.379
306.782
404.536
503.176
602.146
701.473
800.938
900.481

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
191.350
257.531
347.476
440.503
535.803
630.334
726.931
824.039
921.455
1019.685
1118.318
1216.914
1315.904
1414.934
1513.937
1613.196
1712.354
1811.547
1910.880
2010.379
219.912
229.392
239.070
248.589
258.305
268.064
277.697
287.417
297.116
306.782
316.494
326.200
335.982
345.781
355.495
365.284
375.072
384.885
394.731
404.536
414.353
424.223
434.111
443.966
453.839
463.696
473.575
483.416
493.298
503.176
513.067
522.963
532.837
542.728
552.610
562.484
572.408
582.332
592.252
602.146
612.049
621.978
631.912
641.836
651.776
661.717
671.662
681.592
691.522
701.473
711.407
721.355
731.296
741.244
751.188
761.139
771.086
781.039
790.995
800.938
810.886
820.838
830.785
840.742
850.706
860.657
870.609
880.572
890.528
900.481
910.438
920.389
930.340
940.282
950.243
960.200
970.141
980.094
990.044


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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