Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Product list for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1049.315
2017.125
308.053
403.931
502.086
601.045
700.541
800.248
900.079

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1207.655
2154.050
3132.982
4116.045
5103.252
686.702
775.429
865.289
955.878
1049.315
1144.237
1239.057
1335.383
1431.923
1528.453
1625.941
1723.179
1820.626
1918.596
2017.125
2115.792
2214.362
2313.504
2412.260
2511.549
2610.960
2710.089
289.444
298.773
308.053
317.453
326.863
336.437
346.057
355.533
365.159
374.797
384.486
394.237
403.931
413.652
423.460
433.300
443.096
452.921
462.730
472.574
482.375
492.230
502.086
511.961
521.845
531.709
541.595
551.475
561.351
571.280
581.209
591.138
601.045
610.963
620.906
630.854
640.795
650.750
660.707
670.668
680.620
690.573
700.541
710.500
720.468
730.433
740.404
750.373
760.347
770.320
780.296
790.275
800.248
810.225
820.205
830.183
840.166
850.152
860.135
870.119
880.106
890.093
900.079
910.067
920.055
930.043
940.031
950.024
960.016
970.008
980.002
990.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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