Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Product list for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1027.52246.335
2014.17419.868
308.53811.277
405.4666.583
503.6304.077
602.3362.400
701.4191.423
800.6820.746
900.1700.252

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1110.693268.339
283.908171.220
366.439138.748
455.737115.196
549.09099.699
642.90580.891
737.95069.497
834.09560.111
930.11451.862
1027.52246.335
1125.51542.149
1223.77737.918
1321.96934.961
1420.71932.203
1519.54029.392
1618.24527.314
1717.15325.051
1816.08322.914
1915.15421.164
2014.17419.868
2113.44218.680
2212.63717.429
2311.92216.598
2411.28615.445
2510.70714.758
2610.20114.187
279.67713.353
289.29612.720
298.91212.015
308.53811.277
318.27110.635
327.92810.014
337.4929.544
347.1929.099
356.9168.516
366.5348.071
376.2777.646
386.0007.265
395.7256.964
405.4666.583
415.2006.230
424.9635.978
434.7705.772
444.5635.498
454.3965.260
464.2395.003
474.1154.778
484.0024.496
493.8374.291
503.6304.077
513.4923.890
523.3443.709
533.2013.505
543.0453.318
552.9013.135
562.7632.923
572.6522.803
582.5522.684
592.4292.559
602.3362.400
612.2412.249
622.1382.143
632.0602.046
641.9441.932
651.8741.846
661.7831.761
671.6801.684
681.5911.586
691.5081.490
701.4191.423
711.3541.334
721.2771.266
731.2051.188
741.1171.122
751.0401.050
760.9730.988
770.8880.924
780.8170.866
790.7500.813
800.6820.746
810.6250.685
820.5830.630
830.5210.571
840.4690.523
850.4160.483
860.3660.432
870.3120.381
880.2580.343
890.2190.299
900.1700.252
910.1170.212
920.0670.167
930.0270.122
940.0000.073
950.0000.041
960.0000.007
970.0000.000
980.0000.000
990.0000.000


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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