Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Product list for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1023.64197.638
2012.64142.576
308.35123.838
405.49813.703
503.6148.398
602.3864.925
701.4432.948
800.6981.612
900.0140.670

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1107.710371.507
271.649274.361
353.697237.308
444.748207.706
539.158186.495
634.315158.350
730.425139.745
827.525123.407
925.154108.237
1023.64197.638
1121.72589.379
1220.41180.836
1319.47574.756
1418.21969.007
1517.13463.078
1616.17058.655
1714.99553.801
1814.16749.189
1913.29845.396
2012.64142.576
2112.02539.989
2211.45537.261
2311.04835.445
2410.66632.929
2510.29831.428
269.89930.181
279.51328.360
289.08526.979
298.70925.444
308.35123.838
318.03422.443
327.63921.095
337.36920.077
347.08019.114
356.81017.854
366.51816.895
376.25115.980
386.01515.163
395.73414.518
405.49813.703
415.31312.950
425.12212.413
434.86911.975
444.61111.393
454.35710.889
464.18610.346
474.0459.871
483.9159.277
493.7388.846
503.6148.398
513.4858.006
523.3377.628
533.1937.204
543.0726.814
552.9496.436
562.8435.998
572.7195.750
582.6055.507
592.4925.250
602.3864.925
612.2454.616
622.1544.399
632.0764.204
641.9973.972
651.9173.799
661.8063.627
671.7003.471
681.6023.275
691.5173.082
701.4432.948
711.3512.772
721.2742.636
731.1992.482
741.1222.349
751.0412.208
760.9672.087
770.8881.960
780.8271.847
790.7611.743
800.6981.612
810.6231.495
820.5571.389
830.4841.274
840.4091.182
850.3291.106
860.2801.008
870.2090.912
880.1380.839
890.0690.756
900.0140.670
910.0000.594
920.0000.510
930.0000.429
940.0000.338
950.0000.280
960.0000.219
970.0000.141
980.0000.084
990.0000.029


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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