Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Product list for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1027.769141.756
2015.34376.307
3010.11445.371
406.88826.493
504.78016.225
603.2599.461
702.0535.633
801.1423.072
900.3021.294

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
189.984334.389
268.809272.296
358.086247.963
450.548227.976
543.580213.191
639.160192.671
735.193178.295
832.439164.915
930.391151.647
1027.769141.756
1125.474133.614
1223.588124.715
1322.283118.040
1420.888111.431
1519.485104.276
1618.50998.691
1717.80392.295
1816.94585.937
1916.13980.490
2015.34376.307
2114.61072.363
2214.03668.092
2313.38865.185
2412.80561.070
2512.18658.567
2611.78356.461
2711.29953.341
2810.83050.940
2910.36948.237
3010.11445.371
319.77242.850
329.37240.389
339.10038.515
348.80436.729
358.42234.373
368.09132.570
377.68530.839
387.38229.286
397.12928.054
406.88826.493
416.64325.047
426.35524.013
436.14623.167
445.94822.043
455.69621.066
465.55220.012
475.34619.091
485.16117.936
494.98617.098
504.78016.225
514.64415.462
524.46714.726
534.29313.898
544.13513.140
553.99512.402
563.84511.549
573.66311.066
583.53310.594
593.38210.092
603.2599.461
613.1338.861
622.9838.440
632.8758.061
642.7397.612
652.6097.276
662.5066.943
672.4136.642
682.3046.264
692.1605.891
702.0535.633
711.9455.293
721.8435.031
731.7584.735
741.6834.481
751.5894.210
761.4753.978
771.3943.735
781.3113.519
791.2213.321
801.1423.072
811.0532.849
820.9842.648
830.8932.430
840.7952.256
850.7072.112
860.6261.928
870.5481.748
880.4691.611
890.3941.456
900.3021.294
910.2191.152
920.1360.997
930.0560.846
940.0000.679
950.0000.572
960.0000.460
970.0000.318
980.0000.216
990.0000.118


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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