Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Product list for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1025.01266.441
2014.84938.586
3010.01324.662
406.92915.478
504.97510.080
603.6006.261
702.4833.946
801.5282.286
900.7691.032

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
178.456147.731
259.417121.465
349.216111.183
442.742102.746
538.17596.510
634.27887.864
731.77081.812
829.11176.183
926.94470.603
1025.01266.441
1123.24163.014
1221.95259.262
1320.56956.444
1419.51253.647
1518.69750.611
1617.72948.233
1716.80545.497
1816.04142.763
1915.46640.407
2014.84938.586
2114.17336.859
2213.57734.977
2313.06333.687
2412.44831.849
2511.97930.723
2611.63229.770
2711.22528.349
2810.83427.248
2910.42925.999
3010.01324.662
319.56123.477
329.24022.308
338.92721.411
348.65120.550
358.31919.405
367.96818.519
377.76417.663
387.44116.888
397.17216.269
406.92915.478
416.69314.739
426.45714.208
436.19113.770
446.01713.184
455.84312.672
465.66912.116
475.48711.626
485.30411.007
495.15310.554
504.97510.080
514.8059.662
524.6429.256
534.5208.796
544.3438.371
554.2297.955
564.0757.470
573.9537.193
583.8296.921
593.7186.630
603.6006.261
613.4695.907
623.3685.658
633.2555.431
643.1455.162
653.0214.958
662.9154.755
672.8254.571
682.7144.338
692.5974.107
702.4833.946
712.3903.732
722.2863.566
732.1943.377
742.0793.214
751.9803.039
761.8902.888
771.7832.728
781.6952.586
791.6132.454
801.5282.286
811.4332.136
821.3491.998
831.2791.847
841.2021.726
851.1261.625
861.0631.494
870.9711.366
880.9001.266
890.8321.152
900.7691.032
910.7000.926
920.6230.807
930.5350.689
940.4580.557
950.3620.470
960.2960.377
970.2100.256
980.1240.165
990.0000.074


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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