Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Product list for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing



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Exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing ( Jun 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1046.714141.756
2027.17276.307
3018.27045.371
4012.78226.493
509.17016.225
606.3489.461
704.2705.633
802.5533.072
901.1051.294

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1125.643334.389
2103.111272.296
388.706247.963
478.344227.976
569.019213.191
662.885192.671
758.558178.295
854.435164.915
949.742151.647
1046.714141.756
1143.900133.614
1240.951124.715
1338.699118.040
1435.768111.431
1534.033104.276
1632.40898.691
1731.13292.295
1829.64185.937
1928.19680.490
2027.17276.307
2126.22672.363
2225.15468.092
2324.30965.185
2423.10661.070
2522.06858.567
2621.21756.461
2720.54453.341
2819.71450.940
2918.86248.237
3018.27045.371
3117.62542.850
3217.06940.389
3316.47038.515
3415.87136.729
3515.28834.373
3614.86432.570
3714.37930.839
3813.83729.286
3913.31228.054
4012.78226.493
4112.23125.047
4211.85024.013
4311.40723.167
4411.03422.043
4510.71421.066
4610.35820.012
4710.04819.091
489.71717.936
499.44517.098
509.17016.225
518.82615.462
528.42714.726
538.15613.898
547.89713.140
557.62312.402
567.38211.549
577.12211.066
586.79810.594
596.63010.092
606.3489.461
616.1558.861
625.9178.440
635.7198.061
645.5007.612
655.2647.276
665.1166.943
674.9226.642
684.6746.264
694.4555.891
704.2705.633
714.1055.293
723.9345.031
733.7864.735
743.5734.481
753.4014.210
763.2763.978
773.1023.735
782.8893.519
792.7313.321
802.5533.072
812.3872.849
822.3052.648
832.1632.430
842.0122.256
851.8742.112
861.6921.928
871.5331.748
881.3931.611
891.2601.456
901.1051.294
910.9571.152
920.8180.997
930.6960.846
940.5330.679
950.3830.572
960.2420.460
970.0770.318
980.0000.216
990.0000.118


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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