Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Product list for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Probability distribution for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing( Sep 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile6.9786.330
Median13.93819.692
Mean21.44034.133
75% Quartile27.10350.416
Interquartile Range20.12644.085

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1116.841162.958
291.384139.134
378.915129.781
470.973122.082
565.488116.371
659.603108.411
755.825102.799
853.56297.537
950.28992.266
1048.01788.291
1145.83684.982
1243.38981.315
1341.00278.524
1439.25875.718
1537.57672.625
1636.12970.163
1735.12167.282
1833.85764.343
1932.84361.754
2031.66759.714
2130.63957.744
2229.76355.554
2328.82054.026
2427.88551.804
2527.10550.416
2626.20749.225
2725.45147.418
2824.73345.991
2924.22044.341
3023.54942.540
3122.93540.907
3222.15839.264
3321.62337.980
3421.06936.727
3520.66435.028
3620.13933.689
3719.62732.372
3819.10031.161
3918.49230.180
4017.90728.911
4117.48727.705
4216.97926.827
4316.53726.097
4416.14525.111
4515.77724.239
4615.37023.282
4714.97622.430
4814.69321.344
4914.25120.541
5013.93819.692
5113.56218.938
5213.23818.201
5312.87617.359
5412.57016.577
5512.25215.804
5612.03314.897
5711.75414.376
5811.46413.862
5911.24013.310
6010.95412.607
6110.64611.930
6210.36511.450
6310.09011.013
649.80110.491
659.51510.096
669.2569.702
678.9539.343
688.6808.888
698.4628.435
708.1658.119
717.9147.698
727.6717.371
737.4666.999
747.1766.676
756.9766.330
766.8036.030
776.5415.713
786.2835.430
796.0575.167
805.8024.834
815.5324.533
825.3214.257
835.1173.957
844.9283.715
854.7243.513
864.4833.250
874.3002.992
884.0792.793
893.8432.564
903.6532.322
913.4492.108
923.1931.869
932.8761.632
942.6101.366
952.3221.190
962.0691.002
971.7860.757
981.4830.572
990.9750.387


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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