Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Product list for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Probability distribution for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing(  )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.980
Median2.789
Mean7.753
75% Quartile7.947
Interquartile Range6.966

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
173.778
253.193
345.721
439.951
535.935
630.755
727.415
824.527
921.870
1020.020
1118.577
1217.078
1316.006
1414.984
1513.922
1613.122
1712.234
1811.379
1910.667
2010.132
219.635
229.105
238.748
248.248
257.947
267.694
277.322
287.037
296.716
306.377
316.078
325.786
335.563
345.350
355.068
364.851
374.641
384.452
394.301
404.109
413.929
423.799
433.693
443.550
453.425
463.289
473.169
483.017
492.906
502.789
512.686
522.585
532.471
542.365
552.261
562.139
572.069
582.000
591.926
601.832
611.741
621.677
631.618
641.548
651.494
661.441
671.393
681.331
691.270
701.226
711.169
721.124
731.073
741.028
750.980
760.938
770.894
780.854
790.817
800.770
810.727
820.687
830.644
840.609
850.579
860.540
870.502
880.472
890.437
900.400
910.367
920.330
930.292
940.250
950.221
960.189
970.148
980.115
990.081


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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