Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Product list for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Probability distribution for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing(  )

Basic Statistics
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile0.572
Median2.174
Mean11.056
75% Quartile8.310
Interquartile Range7.738

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1148.044
299.537
382.136
468.962
560.011
648.845
741.934
836.174
931.077
1027.652
1125.056
1222.434
1320.605
1418.903
1517.172
1615.898
1714.514
1813.212
1912.151
2011.368
2110.653
229.902
239.405
248.718
258.310
267.972
277.479
287.107
296.694
306.262
315.889
325.528
335.257
345.000
354.665
364.411
374.168
383.952
393.781
403.566
413.368
423.226
433.111
442.958
452.826
462.683
472.559
482.403
492.291
502.174
512.071
521.973
531.862
541.761
551.662
561.549
571.484
581.422
591.355
601.271
611.191
621.135
631.084
641.025
650.980
660.936
670.896
680.845
690.796
700.762
710.716
720.681
730.642
740.608
750.572
760.541
770.509
780.480
790.454
800.420
810.391
820.364
830.335
840.311
850.292
860.267
870.243
880.225
890.204
900.182
910.163
920.143
930.122
940.100
950.085
960.070
970.051
980.037
990.024


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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