Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Product list for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Probability distribution for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing(  )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile6.8537.698
Median15.47427.070
Mean27.00551.336
75% Quartile34.19976.235
Interquartile Range27.34768.537

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1164.894258.169
2128.505219.794
3111.971204.723
4101.627192.313
591.732183.106
684.719170.266
778.441161.208
872.710152.709
968.522144.191
1064.927137.763
1161.067132.407
1258.662126.469
1356.046121.945
1453.182117.396
1550.495112.376
1648.095108.378
1745.867103.696
1844.05298.916
1942.24294.703
2040.72091.382
2139.29288.174
2237.87384.607
2336.67882.117
2435.47378.497
2534.20076.236
2632.84774.295
2731.70371.353
2830.77469.029
2930.05066.346
3028.82263.418
3128.08760.766
3227.04858.103
3326.08056.025
3425.22653.999
3524.39351.258
3623.64249.105
3722.79746.990
3822.13845.053
3921.57743.487
4020.94241.467
4120.24739.555
4219.54838.167
4319.03937.017
4418.58635.467
4517.98134.102
4617.54732.609
4716.96531.287
4816.43229.607
4915.95028.371
5015.47427.070
5115.08525.921
5214.66524.802
5314.14923.531
5413.74122.355
5513.34221.201
5612.92819.854
5712.44719.085
5812.12218.328
5911.81017.521
6011.52516.498
6111.19015.517
6210.83914.827
6310.46814.201
6410.09513.458
659.73712.898
669.48312.342
679.25111.838
688.92711.201
698.57810.572
708.24110.134
717.9809.555
727.6519.108
737.3898.601
747.1108.164
756.8527.698
766.6177.296
776.2626.874
786.0546.499
795.8596.152
805.6475.716
815.3735.325
825.0444.969
834.7994.584
844.5124.276
854.2864.020
863.9643.691
873.7173.369
883.5063.122
893.2682.841
903.0122.547
912.7402.290
922.4562.006
932.1991.728
941.9171.420
951.6811.220
961.4781.010
971.1950.741
980.8380.545
990.4290.354


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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