Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Probability distribution for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Product list for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing



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Probability distribution for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing ( May 2014 )

Basic Statistics
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
25% Quartile3.9382.208
Median10.6488.398
Mean24.07334.939
75% Quartile27.13531.427
Interquartile Range23.19629.219

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1196.996371.507
2147.844274.361
3123.322237.308
4102.417207.706
592.603186.495
683.571158.350
775.367139.745
868.346123.407
963.185108.237
1059.15597.638
1154.94089.379
1251.81780.836
1349.10574.756
1446.75269.007
1544.14363.078
1641.96858.655
1739.67453.801
1837.12649.189
1935.22745.396
2033.65242.576
2132.23339.989
2231.02737.261
2329.63035.445
2428.37932.929
2527.15331.428
2626.24430.181
2725.31428.360
2824.32126.979
2923.34625.444
3022.41223.838
3121.60922.443
3220.78421.095
3320.03820.077
3419.36419.114
3518.84817.854
3618.09416.895
3717.27215.980
3816.66015.163
3916.02614.518
4015.47413.703
4114.81712.950
4214.15112.413
4313.67611.975
4413.16211.393
4512.57810.889
4612.23610.346
4711.6879.871
4811.2729.277
4910.9258.846
5010.6488.398
5110.2528.006
529.8717.628
539.5147.204
549.1846.814
558.8136.436
568.5045.998
578.2085.750
587.9255.507
597.6395.250
607.3714.925
617.1294.616
626.8374.399
636.5264.204
646.3063.972
656.0813.799
665.8573.627
675.6533.471
685.4703.275
695.2603.082
705.0362.948
714.7682.772
724.5622.636
734.3712.482
744.1552.349
753.9372.208
763.7272.087
773.5301.960
783.3321.847
793.1241.743
802.9701.612
812.8051.495
822.6331.389
832.4701.274
842.2601.182
852.1231.106
861.9291.008
871.7580.912
881.5600.839
891.4230.756
901.2560.670
911.0760.594
920.8850.510
930.7000.429
940.5470.338
950.4100.280
960.2530.219
970.0780.141
980.0000.084
990.0000.029


About the probability distribution product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. The 25% quartile, also defined as the first quartile cuts off the lowest 25% of data. The 75% quartile, also defined as the third quartile cuts off the lowest 75%. The interquartile range, also called the middle fifty, is a measure of statistical dispersion, being equal to the difference between the third and first quartiles.
  9. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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