Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


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Historical and exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Aug18.8598.1571.3900.1614.68564.799
Aug-Sep33.56810.8092.0430.57010.625150.514
Aug-Oct47.18912.4422.1660.57913.143262.923

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1062.032127.338
2042.38687.534
3031.48962.800
4023.51042.384
5018.25628.216
6014.19917.370
7010.59710.698
807.4216.029
904.5112.677

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1133.846229.499
2113.186196.971
399.083184.193
489.038173.670
582.380165.860
677.338154.965
773.146147.274
868.629140.053
965.238132.810
1062.032127.338
1158.965122.774
1257.074117.708
1355.326113.844
1452.939109.952
1550.913105.650
1648.695102.217
1746.77798.189
1845.09994.064
1943.82190.417
2042.38687.534
2140.90684.741
2239.74281.624
2338.54079.442
2437.41976.257
2536.33474.260
2635.35572.541
2734.30169.924
2833.47467.849
2932.52165.441
3031.48962.800
3130.80060.395
3229.95157.964
3329.09056.056
3428.24954.187
3527.47451.643
3626.54749.630
3725.81847.641
3825.02745.807
3924.35944.318
4023.51042.384
4122.95740.543
4222.35039.198
4321.67938.080
4421.09636.565
4520.48335.224
4620.02033.751
4719.67032.439
4819.21830.764
4918.71329.526
5018.25628.216
5117.86027.055
5217.48425.919
5317.05024.625
5416.59423.422
5516.23122.238
5615.79020.850
5715.40220.056
5815.03819.272
5914.60218.435
6014.19917.370
6113.71516.348
6213.37115.627
6313.05414.973
6412.71014.194
6512.35113.606
6612.03913.022
6711.68312.492
6811.31711.823
6910.97911.160
7010.59710.698
7110.23310.087
729.9769.615
739.6419.080
749.3268.618
758.9918.125
768.6567.700
778.3297.254
787.9906.857
797.7196.490
807.4216.029
817.1775.615
826.8165.239
836.4894.831
846.1944.505
855.8934.234
865.6583.886
875.3523.545
885.0253.285
894.7392.988
904.5112.677
914.2392.406
923.9162.106
933.5671.812
943.2421.488
952.9221.277
962.5021.056
972.0680.774
981.6710.568
991.0700.368


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


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