Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Historical and exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


Return to catchment list
Product list for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing


Download forecast data
Historical and exceedance probability for Boorowa River at Prossers Crossing(  )

Historical Observations
Average (1950+) (GL)Last year (2012) (GL)Observed (2013) (GL)Minimum (2006) (GL)10 yr average (2003+) (GL)Maximum (1974) (GL)
Sep14.7102.6520.6520.4095.94085.715
Sep-Oct28.3304.2860.7760.4178.458198.123
Sep-Nov32.4024.6981.4960.41910.931202.222

Notes:

  • The minimum and maximum are determined from the total for the 3 month period.

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1035.16988.291
2023.20459.714
3017.06042.540
4012.95028.911
509.92919.692
607.80212.607
705.8618.119
804.0704.834
902.5442.322

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
194.358162.958
270.079139.134
360.834129.781
454.518122.082
549.122116.371
645.957108.411
742.555102.799
839.68497.537
937.36492.266
1035.16988.291
1133.34684.982
1231.51081.315
1330.35878.524
1428.99675.718
1528.06372.625
1626.96570.163
1725.86567.282
1824.81064.343
1923.93261.754
2023.20459.714
2122.49057.744
2221.89455.554
2321.22254.026
2420.54551.804
2519.81850.416
2619.11149.225
2718.55547.418
2818.06345.991
2917.50744.341
3017.06042.540
3116.45340.907
3215.90939.264
3315.44537.980
3415.13536.727
3514.77935.028
3614.33333.689
3714.00232.372
3813.65931.161
3913.32830.180
4012.95028.911
4112.66527.705
4212.35626.827
4312.03226.097
4411.72725.111
4511.40224.239
4611.05023.282
4710.77222.430
4810.46921.344
4910.15820.541
509.92919.692
519.70318.938
529.47818.201
539.22717.359
548.97716.577
558.79815.804
568.59614.897
578.40614.376
588.16413.862
597.97013.310
607.80212.607
617.58211.930
627.32611.450
637.17111.013
646.95810.491
656.75210.096
666.5789.702
676.3869.343
686.2428.888
696.0708.435
705.8618.119
715.6447.698
725.4837.371
735.3006.999
745.1456.676
754.9316.330
764.7586.030
774.5975.713
784.3755.430
794.2445.167
804.0704.834
813.9344.533
823.7444.257
833.5913.957
843.4153.715
853.2853.513
863.1603.250
872.9752.992
882.8282.793
892.6872.564
902.5442.322
912.3762.108
922.2011.869
931.9671.632
941.7691.366
951.5551.190
961.4001.002
971.1980.757
980.9390.572
990.5840.387


About the historical and exceedance probablity product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence