Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


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Exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2( Sep 2014 )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10127.097125.654
2098.88193.990
3078.68773.556
4063.43155.223
5051.35540.645
6041.45027.514
7032.38618.160
8023.73910.880
9015.4015.181

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1227.233205.959
2192.590180.412
3176.076170.375
4163.997162.107
5153.524155.970
6147.267147.406
7141.622141.356
8136.202135.674
9131.542129.969
10127.097125.654
11124.275122.052
12121.217118.049
13117.860114.990
14115.175111.906
15112.150108.490
16109.013105.758
17106.357102.544
18103.85599.243
19101.26696.314
2098.88193.990
2196.50991.731
2293.71589.200
2391.48987.420
2489.34484.809
2587.33383.164
2685.26981.742
2783.39179.565
2881.96977.828
2980.40175.800
3078.68773.556
3176.84671.494
3275.39769.389
3373.95467.722
3472.38166.073
3570.79263.802
3669.21961.982
3767.76360.161
3866.21858.461
3964.87157.063
4063.43155.223
4161.92353.445
4260.70352.128
4359.46751.019
4458.26549.498
4556.98348.133
4655.45946.609
4754.45945.232
4853.44143.441
4952.16142.093
5051.35540.645
5150.19739.338
5249.10438.040
5347.97236.535
5446.84735.111
5546.24633.681
5645.37531.974
5744.46130.978
5843.49229.983
5942.48128.905
6041.45027.514
6140.62326.153
6239.59225.178
6338.63624.282
6437.77923.202
6536.93722.377
6635.72521.549
6734.71820.789
6833.85319.818
6933.03618.845
7032.38618.160
7131.50317.245
7230.47916.530
7329.72215.712
7428.93315.000
7527.93314.231
7627.19013.563
7726.28712.856
7825.39812.221
7924.45711.630
8023.73910.880
8122.89810.201
8222.0389.577
8321.0228.896
8420.2858.348
8519.5077.888
8618.6777.292
8717.7806.705
8816.8876.252
8916.0425.731
9015.4015.181
9114.3844.696
9213.2624.155
9312.1183.618
9411.1733.016
9510.1362.620
968.7622.199
977.5971.651
986.3641.240
994.6000.832


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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