Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


Return to catchment list
Product list for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10127.93284.840
2087.63344.464
3062.47827.860
4046.79217.710
5034.21611.837
6025.4987.630
7018.3295.010
8012.1723.070
906.5321.535

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1272.630242.410
2217.942188.466
3197.698167.745
4180.214151.031
5168.498138.906
6156.381122.510
7145.970111.390
8138.527101.361
9132.72991.758
10127.93284.840
11123.14479.306
12118.14873.429
13113.03969.139
14108.10564.990
15104.36160.607
16101.22357.263
1797.72353.511
1893.80649.860
1991.00746.789
2087.63344.464
2184.81342.295
2281.85539.971
2379.20138.401
2476.35936.192
2573.78234.857
2671.30833.735
2768.84732.079
2866.61530.808
2964.75229.377
3062.47827.860
3160.47826.525
3258.69025.218
3357.16324.220
3455.77123.266
3554.07722.003
3652.67921.030
3751.36820.092
3850.06719.246
3948.59818.571
4046.79217.710
4144.98816.906
4243.11516.328
4341.88215.853
4440.64215.216
4539.65014.660
4638.48714.055
4737.63713.522
4836.46912.849
4935.29912.355
5034.21611.837
5133.10211.381
5232.07910.937
5331.39310.433
5430.4159.966
5529.7309.508
5628.8118.973
5727.9288.666
5827.0268.364
5926.1608.041
6025.4987.630
6124.5747.234
6223.9136.954
6323.0896.699
6422.4696.395
6521.7506.165
6620.9005.935
6720.1065.726
6819.5245.460
6918.8415.196
7018.3295.010
7117.3804.764
7216.8444.572
7316.3584.354
7415.6694.164
7515.0383.959
7614.5993.782
7713.9233.594
7813.3103.426
7912.7173.269
8012.1723.070
8111.6512.889
8211.0792.723
8310.5472.542
849.9502.395
859.4042.271
868.8542.111
878.2481.952
887.6761.829
897.0641.686
906.5321.535
915.9831.400
925.4361.249
934.8741.097
944.3850.925
953.9450.810
963.3860.686
972.6340.521
982.0910.394
991.3470.264


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence