Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


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Exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
10139.491185.659
20110.594134.527
3089.592102.200
4072.69774.282
5058.38853.301
6046.98735.539
7035.67423.462
8024.87314.234
9014.4786.967

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1226.638316.462
2198.567274.812
3183.037258.453
4173.010244.980
5165.141234.982
6157.124221.034
7152.168211.187
8148.072201.942
9143.998192.667
10139.491185.659
11135.098179.812
12132.695173.320
13129.643168.366
14127.164163.374
15124.129157.852
16121.188153.442
17118.053148.262
18115.731142.952
19113.090138.250
20110.594134.527
21108.150130.914
22105.942126.876
23103.463124.041
24101.724119.896
2599.747117.290
2697.970115.041
2796.173111.610
2893.915108.880
2991.667105.702
3089.592102.200
3187.71798.994
3285.96495.738
3384.29193.169
3482.55590.638
3580.86287.172
3679.21484.408
3777.30481.659
3875.90179.105
3974.10177.015
4072.69774.282
4171.13271.656
4269.78569.722
4368.37368.102
4467.03065.891
4565.69363.918
4664.08761.730
4762.87559.763
4861.05957.225
4959.68555.327
5058.38853.301
5157.24451.485
5255.91849.692
5354.75547.626
5453.45645.684
5552.33943.749
5651.22541.453
5750.25940.123
5848.92738.800
5947.81937.372
6046.98735.539
6145.69733.757
6244.78432.486
6343.64931.322
6442.33929.924
6541.26728.860
6639.98627.795
6738.90026.820
6837.72925.577
6936.66624.334
7035.67423.462
7134.80222.298
7233.70521.390
7332.72420.352
7431.43519.449
7530.33818.476
7629.42017.630
7728.25316.735
7827.27315.932
7925.86115.184
8024.87314.234
8123.99413.374
8223.01212.583
8321.70211.719
8420.81911.021
8519.85410.436
8618.9549.676
8717.7888.925
8816.5858.345
8915.6257.676
9014.4786.967
9113.5906.339
9212.6555.637
9311.5274.936
9410.5884.147
959.5813.623
968.1523.063
976.8402.327
985.4821.769
993.4001.207


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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