Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


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Product list for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


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Exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1041.70287.802
2028.29665.701
3020.83951.240
4016.07637.933
5012.20526.979
609.36416.921
707.12110.014
804.8505.173
902.8271.985

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
195.736143.538
277.156125.816
367.253118.853
461.823113.117
556.483108.858
651.921102.913
748.79398.713
845.88994.766
943.62190.801
1041.70287.802
1140.04385.296
1238.51882.509
1336.69080.379
1435.19378.229
1533.41075.846
1632.26373.939
1731.44871.693
1830.58969.383
1929.18967.331
2028.29665.701
2127.37764.113
2226.19662.332
2325.40761.078
2424.63159.236
2523.91758.072
2623.32857.065
2722.53655.521
2821.84354.287
2921.39752.842
3020.83951.240
3120.26549.763
3219.81348.252
3319.28147.051
3418.77545.860
3518.35844.215
3617.76742.891
3717.34241.562
3816.85740.317
3916.50239.289
4016.07637.933
4115.55936.616
4215.17635.637
4314.81434.811
4414.43133.675
4513.99632.651
4613.54631.504
4713.23930.464
4812.90529.108
4912.61128.083
5012.20526.979
5111.91525.981
5211.57624.988
5311.21323.834
5410.90122.740
5510.66421.643
5610.36520.331
5710.11519.568
589.87118.806
599.64517.982
609.36416.921
619.10115.890
628.83415.154
638.63114.482
648.40113.676
658.18513.065
667.94612.456
677.78111.900
687.55911.197
697.35110.500
707.12110.014
716.8859.371
726.6858.875
736.4508.313
746.1977.831
755.9677.317
765.7236.877
775.5036.418
785.2276.011
795.0425.638
804.8505.173
814.6764.759
824.4604.387
834.2483.988
844.0863.673
853.9023.414
863.6813.084
873.4842.768
883.2712.529
893.0322.260
902.8271.985
912.5951.748
922.4341.493
932.2261.249
941.9100.989
951.6520.825
961.3710.658
971.0580.455
980.7730.315
990.3550.188


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


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