Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


Return to catchment list
Product list for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2


Download forecast data
Exceedance probability for Abercrombie River at Hadley No.2(  )

Exceedance Probability Summary
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
1035.71969.333
2023.26449.657
3016.39937.023
4011.98025.929
509.10817.577
606.73310.752
704.8766.447
803.2273.470
901.7301.411

Exceedance Probability
Exceedance Prob. of
Streamflow (%)
Streamflow Forecast
(3 month total flow in GL)
Historical Reference
(3 month total flow in GL)
177.161119.233
266.309103.361
359.68897.125
454.40591.988
549.79788.175
646.20682.852
742.53379.093
840.02375.561
937.56572.015
1035.71969.333
1133.92767.094
1232.31764.605
1330.79062.704
1429.47460.787
1528.50858.664
1627.33156.966
1726.40754.969
1825.36052.918
1924.23451.100
2023.26449.657
2122.22848.255
2221.47946.686
2320.86445.582
2420.18043.966
2519.44942.948
2618.73542.068
2718.02940.724
2817.51039.652
2916.93038.403
3016.39937.023
3115.85235.758
3215.35134.470
3314.81633.452
3414.39132.448
3513.91531.070
3613.52329.970
3713.16828.874
3812.77527.855
3912.37427.021
4011.98025.929
4111.67124.879
4211.37624.107
4311.02023.459
4410.72622.577
4510.44221.790
4610.10820.917
479.85520.135
489.59319.128
499.34818.377
509.10817.577
518.83416.863
528.61116.160
538.34715.355
548.07414.601
557.84513.855
567.65012.976
577.45112.471
587.22911.971
596.96811.435
606.73310.752
616.47710.094
626.2119.630
636.0289.207
645.8618.704
655.7128.325
665.5307.948
675.3107.605
685.1917.173
695.0876.745
704.8766.447
714.6666.054
724.5345.751
734.3715.407
744.2055.112
754.0374.797
763.8954.526
773.7444.243
783.5863.992
793.4023.760
803.2273.470
813.0703.211
822.9452.976
832.7722.722
842.6012.521
852.4652.354
862.3132.140
872.1791.933
882.0121.775
891.8931.597
901.7301.411
911.5881.249
921.4581.073
931.2970.902
941.1540.715
950.9620.595
960.8340.471
970.6700.315
980.5000.203
990.2520.098


About the exceedance probability product


  1. The forecast is a simulation from the Bayesian Joint Probability (BJP) Model. The simulation comprises 5000 members.
  2. The forecast skill of the BJP model is different for different forecast periods of the year. Please look at the Model Validation results to assess model skill for this forecast period.
  3. The historical reference is a probabilistic representation of the historical data.
  4. The forecast location name is displayed in the graph title. Site forecast locations are followed by the Australian Water Resources Council (AWRC) river station number in brackets e.g. (405219).
  5. The streamflow data used for new forecasts and for verification is from realtime data sources which are not rigorously quality controlled.
  6. The historical reference plot and the historical data plots are derived from the available historical record. The legend shows the year associated with the start month of the forecast period.
  7. The RMSEP skill scores have been defined as less than 10 very low skill, 10-20 low skill, 20-40 moderate skill, greater than 40 high skill.
  8. Further explanation of some technical terms is provided under the FAQ.


Creative Commons By Attribution logo
Unless otherwise noted, all material on this page is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution Australia Licence